globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6193126
论文题名:
碳强度约束对城乡居民福利水平的影响:基于CGE模型的分析
其他题名: The impact of carbon intensity restriction on welfare of urban and rural residents: an analysis based on CGE Model
作者: 董梅1; 徐璋勇2; 李存芳3
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2018
卷: 28, 期:2, 页码:7607-7617
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 碳强度约束 ; 城乡居民 ; 消费结构 ; 居民福利 ; 动态CGE模型
英文关键词: carbon intensity constraint ; urban and rural residents ; consumption structure ; welfare of residents ; dynamic CGE model
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 中国政府承诺到2030年单位国内生产总值的CO_2排放比2005年下降60% ~ 65%,基于碳强度约束的行政型减排措施是中国应对气候变化的主要手段之一,分析碳强度约束对城乡居民福利水平的影响,是碳减排机制设计的重要内容。本文构建31个部门的经济-能源-碳排放动态CGE模型,模拟20122030年在碳强度约束和非化石能源比重提高的情景下,城乡居民福利水平、消费结构以及CO_2排放等指标相比基准情景的变化情况。结果表明:①城乡居民收入无显著变化,生活总消费略有下降。其中,农村居民生活总消费的降幅超过城镇居民。②居民能源消费和CO_2排放大幅下降,农村居民的降幅超过城镇居民。③居民对煤炭、成品油和天然气的消费大幅降低,电力消费显著上升,部分资本密集型商品的消费小幅增加。其中,城乡居民的煤炭消费降幅最大,农村居民对成品油和天然气的消费降幅远超城镇居民,对电力、专用设备、通用设备、金属制品等商品的消费涨幅超过城镇居民。④碳强度约束使城乡居民福利小幅下降。其中,农村居民的福利等价变化降幅超过城镇居民。根据实证结果,得出以下结论:一是碳强度约束对居民生活减排起到积极作用;二是这一政策使城乡居民福利小幅下降,但不会对居民生活产生强烈冲击;三是对农村居民能源消费的负向影响超过城镇居民。总体而言,政府在碳强度约束政策的基础上,首先,应增加对农村居民的转移支付,提高农村居民收入增幅,缩小城乡居民收入差距;其次,增加农村清洁能源的供给;再次,提高对农村居民使用清洁能源的补贴力度,从而降低应对气候变化政策对农村居民的负向影响。
英文摘要: Chinese government pledged to cut its CO_2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. Administrative emission reduction measures based on carbon intensity restriction are one of China's major means of coping with climate change. Analyzing the impact of carbon intensity restriction on urban and rural residents'welfare is a significant content of the carbon emission reduction mechanism design. This paper builds a dynamic CGE model of economy-energy-carbon emission based on 31 sectors to simulate changes in urban and rural residents'welfare and consumption structure as well as CO_2 emission under the context of carbon intensity restriction and increased share of non-fossil energy from 2012 to 2030. Results are listed as follows: ① There's no obvious change in urban and rural residents'income and the general living consumption slightly drops. The decrease of rural residents'living consumption is greater than that of urban residents. ② Residents'energy consumption and CO_2 emission experience a dramatic fall with greater decrease on the part of rural residents. ③ A sharp decline is shown in the consumption of coal,refined oil and natural gas; an obvious increase can be witnessed in electric power consumption and the consumption of some capital-intensive sectors goes through a minor increase. The coal consumption of urban and rural residents are significantly increased. The decline in consumption of refined oil and natural gas of rural residents far exceeds that of urban residents. Besides,their increase in consumption of electric power, special purpose machinery,general purpose machinery and metal products surpasses that of urban residents. ④ Carbon intensity restriction brings about a slight drop in urban and rural residents'welfare but it's a small range. The fall in the Hicks'equivalent variation is greater than that of urban residents. The following conclusions are reached according to the empirical results: first,carbon intensity restriction plays a positive role in household carbon emission reduction; second,the policy makes urban and rural residents' welfare decline but it won't have strong impact on residents'life; third,rural residents receive greater adverse influences on energy consumption than urban residents do. Generally speaking,the government should properly increase the transfer payment for rural residents on the basis of carbon intensity restriction,and increase the income of rural residents to narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents. Besides,the government should provide more clean energy for the rural area,and increase subsidies for rural residents using clean energy,thus reducing negative influences of the climate change policy over rural residents.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155325
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.西北大学经济管理学院
2.西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心
3.江苏师范大学商学院,
4., 西安
5.西安
6.徐州, 陕西
7.陕西
8.江苏 710127
9.710127
10.221116, 中国
11.西北大学经济管理学院
12.西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心,
13., 西安
14.西安, 陕西
15.陕西 710127
16.710127, 中国
17.江苏师范大学商学院, 徐州, 江苏 221116, 中国

Recommended Citation:
董梅,徐璋勇,李存芳. 碳强度约束对城乡居民福利水平的影响:基于CGE模型的分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2018-01-01,28(2):7607-7617
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