globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6250843
论文题名:
基于LMDI的区域产业碳排放脱钩努力研究
其他题名: Decoupling efforts of regional industrial development on CO_2 emissions in China based on LMDI analysis
作者: 刘博文1; 张贤2; 杨琳3
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2018
卷: 28, 期:4, 页码:7624-7635
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 区域产业增长 ; 碳排放 ; 脱钩
英文关键词: LMDI ; regional industrial growth ; carbon emissions ; decoupling ; LMDI
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 随着全球变暖形势的不断加剧以及能源的过度开发利用,人类迫切需要一种能满足能源环境可持续发展要求的新型经济模式,代替以高能耗高污染为特点的工业经济发展模式。低碳经济被广泛认为是继工业革命后改变全球经济的又一次革命浪潮。低碳产业不仅是低碳发展的重点内容,也是低碳经济转型的重要途径。我国终端能源消费的90%直接发生在产业部门,巨大的能源消费总量,加上中国以煤炭为主的能源结构,使得产业部门的碳排放管理势必成为中国低碳经济政策的重要内容之一。本文运用LMDI分解法和Tapio脱钩指标分析了1996年到2015年间中国区域产业增长和CO_2排放的脱钩弹性和脱钩努力程度。结果表明:①各区域的产业碳排放都呈现显著增加趋势,其中增幅最大的是位于北部沿海的河北和山东。从排放结构来看,制造业在1996年所占比重最大,但部分地区的交通碳排放在2015年超过制造业,成为最大的碳排放源。②从全国层面看,九五、十一五和十二五时期呈现弱脱钩,十五时期呈现为扩张链接状态。尤其需要注意的是十二五时期,西北地区呈现出扩张负脱钩。③各地区都做出了脱钩努力,其中,北京做出的脱钩努力最大,青海和宁夏做出的脱钩努力最小。从各脱钩努力指标来看,能源强度的贡献比较大;产业结构和能源结构基本没有显著效果,甚至阻碍了部分地区脱钩的实现;人口规模一直未做出脱钩努力,尤其是在发达的人口密集区。由此可见,产业结构和能源结构调整依然是未来我国实现脱钩的重要途径。
英文摘要: With global warming increasing rapidly and the excessive exploitation of energy,finding a new economic growth pattern to replace the traditional high energy-consuming and high-polluting model has become urgent for sustainable development.The low-carbon economy has been widely recognized as the most dramatic change since the Industry Revolution.Low-carbon industry is not only the key component of low carbon development,but also an important model of transition to the low carbon economy.90% of energy end-use takes place in the industrial sector of China,which has made carbon emission management becomes one of the most important factors in China's low-carbon economic policy.This paper applied the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method and Tapio index to carry on a decomposition analysis on the decoupling elasticity and effort index between regional industrial growth and CO_2 emissions in China from 1996 to 2015.The results indicated that:① The industry-related CO_2 emissions in all regions increased during the study period,of which the largest increase appeared in Hebei and Shandong located in the north coast area.The manufacture sector made up the largest percentage of the total emissions in 1996,while the transportation sector surpassed it as the largest contributor of carbon emissions in some regions in 2015.② For the whole country,weak decoupling'was the main characteristic during the 9th Five Year Plan period and 11th Five Year Plan period and 12th Five Year Plan period,whileweak coupling'was the main characteristic during the 10th Five Year Plan period.It should be noted that northwest area faced the issue ofstrong coupling'during 12th Five Year Plan period.③All of the regions had made decoupling effort,of which the most significant effort occurred in Beijing,the worst happened in Qinghai and Ningxia.The decrease in energy intensity made significant contributions to the decoupling effort.The adjustments in energy structure and economic structure had not yet been fully effective,and even hindered the realization of decouple in some regions.The population effect never made the contributions to the decouple index,especially in the populated and developed regions.Hence,the adjustments in energy structure and economic structure are important means to achieve the decoupling effect between industrial growth and CO_2 emissions for China in the future.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155328
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.北京理工大学管理与经济学院, 北京 100081, 中国
2.中国21世纪议程管理中心, 北京 100038, 中国
3.中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院, 北京 100083, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘博文,张贤,杨琳. 基于LMDI的区域产业碳排放脱钩努力研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2018-01-01,28(4):7624-7635
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[刘博文]'s Articles
[张贤]'s Articles
[杨琳]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[刘博文]'s Articles
[张贤]'s Articles
[杨琳]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[刘博文]‘s Articles
[张贤]‘s Articles
[杨琳]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.