globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6217965
论文题名:
气候变化背景下寒潮对广州市居民超额死亡急性健康风险预估
其他题名: Estimating and projecting the acute effect of cold spells on excess mortality under climate change in Guangzhou
作者: 孙庆华1; 王文韬2; 王彦文1; 李湉湉1
刊名: 中华预防医学杂志
ISSN: 0253-9624
出版年: 2018
卷: 52, 期:4, 页码:7811-7820
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 死亡 ; 预估 ; 寒潮 ; 非意外死亡
英文关键词: Climate change ; Death ; Projection ; Cold spell ; Non-accidental mortality
WOS学科分类: MEDICINE GENERAL INTERNAL
WOS研究方向: General & Internal Medicine
中文摘要: 目的定量估算气候变化背景下寒潮对广州市居民超额死亡急性健康风险。方法利用20092013年的死因和气象数据,使用广义线性模型(GLM)计算广州市寒潮与非意外死亡的暴露反应关系。使用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次报告中的2个未来排放情景(RCP4.5、 RCP8.5)和5个全球气候模式(GCMs),以19801999年(1980s)为基线,预估20202039年(2020s)、20502069年(2050s)、2080-2099年(2080s)的日均温度,并根据寒潮定义识别各个时间段的寒潮。最后根据非寒潮日死亡数的日均值(20092013年)、暴露反应关系和未来年均寒潮天数计算1980s、2020s、2050s、2080s广州市由于寒潮导致的年均超额死亡数。结果20092013年广州市每日非意外死亡数均值为96例,日均温均值为22.0℃。寒潮日超额死亡风险为3.3%(95%CI:0.4%~6.2%)。1980s寒潮导致的年均超额非意外死亡数为34(95%CI:4~64)例。在RCP4.5情景下:2020s年均寒潮超额死亡将比1980s增加0~10例;2050s比1980s增加1~9例;2080s比1980s增加1~9例。在RCP8.5情景下:2020s年均寒潮超额死亡将比1980s增加0~9例;2050s比1980s增加1~6例;2080s比1980s增加0~11例。结论气候变化背景下,未来广州市寒潮所致年均超额死亡急性健康风险增加。
英文摘要: Objective To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. Methods We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020- 2039 (2020s),2050- 2069 (2050s),2080- 2099(2080s)) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. Results The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃。 Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95% CI: 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality。In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95%C/: 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Conclusion The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155429
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所, 北京 100021, 中国
2.中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所
3.广西医科大学公共卫生学院,
4.,
5., 北京
6.100021
7., 中国

Recommended Citation:
孙庆华,王文韬,王彦文,等. 气候变化背景下寒潮对广州市居民超额死亡急性健康风险预估[J]. 中华预防医学杂志,2018-01-01,52(4):7811-7820
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[孙庆华]'s Articles
[王文韬]'s Articles
[王彦文]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[孙庆华]'s Articles
[王文韬]'s Articles
[王彦文]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[孙庆华]‘s Articles
[王文韬]‘s Articles
[王彦文]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.