globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6251308
论文题名:
长江流域一季稻高温热害分布特征及风险分析
其他题名: Spatial-temporal characteristics and risk analysis of heat stress hazard of single-season rice across Yangtze River reaches
作者: 张蕾1; 侯英雨1; 杨冰韵2; 黄大鹏3
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2018
卷: 27, 期:2, 页码:78-85
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 高温热害 ; 日最高温度 ; 时空分布 ; 分布函数 ; 风险
英文关键词: heat stress ; daily maximum temperature ; spatial-temporal distribution ; distribution function ; risk
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 基于长江流域一季稻区75个农业气象观测站观测数据和逐日气象数据,建立典型高温年份一季稻灾损和高温热害表征因子关系,筛选关键致灾因子、构建高温热害致灾等级指标,分析一季稻热害致灾时空分布规律。以多种分布函数对高温致灾因子序列进行拟合,筛选最优分布函数,综合热害强度及其风险概率进行高温热害致灾风险分析。结果表明:一季稻高温热害致灾程度与高温过程的日最高温度关系显著,以38.9 ℃、39.5 ℃、40.2 ℃、41.5 ℃为轻度、中度、较重、重度致灾热害的阈值。20世纪60至80年代致灾热害发生范围和次数减少,90年代稍有增加,21世纪后明显增大;致灾热害基本以轻度、中度和较重等级为主,80年代发生站次较少,重度致灾热害发生较少、21世纪后明显增加。重庆中部和北部为高温致灾热害发生的高频区。综合致灾强度和风险概率的致灾较高风险区主要集中在重庆和四川盆地东部地区。整体看,一季稻高温致灾热害范围和强度将呈扩大增强的趋势,需采取一定防范管理措施以应对气候变化、保障粮食稳产高产。
英文摘要: Using up-to-date data of single-season rice phenology observation from 75 agro-meteorological stations and relevant daily temperatures from 1961 to 2015 across Yangtze River reaches,vital factor was identified through stepwise regression analysis of date series of heat induced loss and corresponding three factors.Based on relationship between yield loss and vital factor,critical value was calculated,and accordingly spatiotemporal characteristics of heat stress hazard were detected.Optimal function was implemented to fit the distribution of vital factor at each station,through comparisons among 10 distribution functions co-tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov,Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared methods.Intensity of heat stress hazard and its probability was integrated to represent risk of heat stress hazard.The results elucidated that the heat stress hazard was correlated to daily maximum temperature,but had little relationship with accumulated number of days and thermal time.The critical value of the maximum temperature was 38.9 ℃,39.5 ℃,40.2 ℃,and 41.5 ℃,corresponding to low,medium,high and heavy heat stress hazard respectively.The extent and frequency of heat stress hazard decreased from 1960 s to 1980 s,and increased since 1990 s.The number of low,medium,high heat stress hazard process was greater than that of heavy heat stress hazard process.At the decadal scale,the number decreased during 1960 s-1970 s-1980 s and increased from 1990 s.The minimum values of the number were identified at low,medium,high heat stress hazard level,while an obvious increasing trend after 2000 was existed at heavy heat stress hazard level.Integrated risk index showed that high risk was mainly located in Chongqing and eastern Sichuan Basin where should receive more attention.Generally,the heat stress hazard will tend to be more frequent and series,which can prompt us that the specific adaptive strategies are necessary for Yangtze River reaches to maintain rice production and cope with climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155457
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作者单位: 1.国家气象中心, 北京 100081, 中国
2.国家卫星气象中心, 北京 100081, 中国
3.国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张蕾,侯英雨,杨冰韵,等. 长江流域一季稻高温热害分布特征及风险分析[J]. 自然灾害学报,2018-01-01,27(2):78-85
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