globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6238717
论文题名:
气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析
其他题名: Quantitative Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Annual and Maximum Daily Runoff in theWujiang River Basin
作者: 林娴1; 陈晓宏2; 何艳虎2; 李深林2; 郑炎辉2
刊名: 自然资源学报
ISSN: 1000-3037
出版年: 2018
卷: 33, 期:5, 页码:7899-7906
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 最大日流量 ; 定量分析 ; HIMS模型 ; 武江流域
英文关键词: climate change ; human activities ; maximum daily runoff ; quantitative analysis ; HIMS model ; Wujiang River Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System)模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明:HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。
英文摘要: Focusing on the quantitative identification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual and maximum daily runoff at a basin scale,taking the Wujiang River Basin,South China for instance,this paper simulated and quantitatively evaluated the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and their contribution ratios to runoff at daily and annual scales by using the HIMS model and elastic coefficient method.The results showed that,the HIMS model performed well in the Wujiang River Basin at daily scale.The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients are 0.85 and 0.77,and the absolute values of water balance errors are 3.1% and 3.3% respectively in calibration and validation periods.The results obtained by the HIMS model and the elastic coefficient method indicated that climate change is the dominat factor that leads to the increase of annual runoff and human activities cause the runoff decrease while its contribution ratio is smaller compared to that of climate change.The annual maximum daily runoff showed an upward trend due to climate change and human activities.The contribution ratios of climate change and human activities are 94% and 6%,respectively.Climate change has greater impact on annual maximum daily runoff than that on annual average runoff.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155468
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中山大学水资源与环境研究中心
2.中山大学
3.中山大学
4.广东省水利厅,
5.广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心
6.华南地区水循环与水安全广东普通高校重点实验室
7., 广州
8.广州
9.广州
10.广州,
11.510275
12.510275
13.510275
14.510000
15.中山大学水资源与环境研究中心
16.中山大学
17.中山大学,
18.广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心
19.华南地区水循环与水安全广东普通高校重点实验室, 广州
20.广州
21.广州,
22.510275
23.510275
24.510275

Recommended Citation:
林娴,陈晓宏,何艳虎,等. 气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析[J]. 自然资源学报,2018-01-01,33(5):7899-7906
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