globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6395006
论文题名:
1951-2014年中国北方地区季节气温突变与变暖停滞年份的时空变异性
其他题名: The Seasonal Spatiotemporal Variation of the Temperature Mutation andWarming Hiatus over northern China during 1951-2014
作者: 梁珑腾; 马龙; 刘廷玺; 孙柏林; 周莹; 柳杨
刊名: 自然资源学报
ISSN: 1000-3037
出版年: 2018
卷: 33, 期:12, 页码:792-800
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 季节气温 ; 突变 ; 变暖停滞 ; 时空变异性 ; 中国北方地区
英文关键词: seasonal temperature ; mutation ; warming hiatus ; spatiotemporal variation ; northern China
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 利用中国北方357个气象站1951-2014年的季(月)平均最低气温,平均气温和平均最高气温数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了中国北方地区三类气温季节突变与变暖停滞年份时空变异性。结果表明:平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温各季节整体随纬度降低突变和变暖停滞年份变晚,突变至变暖停滞周期缩短。东北春、冬季突变和变暖停滞整体最早(20世纪70年代至80年代、1993-2002年),华北次之,西北最晚(20世纪80年代至21世纪前10 a、1996-2010年);夏、秋季突变华北最早(20世纪70年代和90年代),东北次之,西北最晚(20世纪90年代至21世纪前10 a),变暖停滞年份地区差异较小。平均最高气温未突变和平均最低气温未停滞站点较多,均主要分布在山地、高纬度地区和华北平原南部,其周边区域突变及停滞年份相对偏晚。同类气温突变和变暖停滞年份整体上分别按冬(1981-1990年)、春、秋、夏季(1994-2008年)和冬(1995-2008年)、秋、夏、春季(1998-2010年)顺序依次变晚,冬 春秋夏季突变至变暖停滞周期依次缩短。春、夏和冬季均为平均最低气温整体突变最早(1972-1999、1987-1999、1971-2000年),平均气温次之,平均最高气温最晚(1975-2008、 1994-2008、1972-2006年),秋季与之不同。春、夏季整体按平均最低气温(1994-2008、 1997-2008年)、平均气温、平均最高气温(均为1997-2010年)停滞依次变晚,秋、冬季与之相反。各季节突变至变暖停滞周期整体按平均最低气温(9~18 a)、平均气温和平均最高气温(5~ 12 a)依次缩短。夏季三类气温均在华北南部(低纬度)突变最早,与研究区整体规律相悖,该地区大部分站点未停滞,亦与突变早停滞也早的整体规律不同。
英文摘要: Over the past hundred years, remarkable changes occurred around global climate. Two significant characteristics of climate changes are temperature mutation and warming hiatus, which led to a variety of extreme climate events of all scales, such as in the north of China. Therefore, revealing the features and rules of temperature mutation and warming hiatus in northern China could provide some basis to deeply understand climate changes, prevent and mitigate disasters as well as improve ecological environment in northern China and in the whole world. Based on the seasonal (monthly) average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature data at 357 meteorological stations in northern China and surrounding areas during 1951-2014, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal variation of three types of seasonal temperature (the average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature) mutation and warming hiatus over northern China by using Mann-Kendall test, slide t test and other methods. The results indicate: according to the average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature, the abrupt change of temperature and warming hiatus became late and the cycle from abrupt change to warming hiatus became short as the latitude reduces. In spring and winter, the temperature mutation and warming hiatus in the Northeast China were the earliest (1970s-1980s, 1993-2002), in North China were the second and in the Northwest China were the latest (1990s-2000s, 1996-2010). While in summer and autumn, the temperature mutation and warming hiatus in North China were the earliest, in Northeast China were the second and in Northwest China were the latest (1990s-2010s). There was little distinction among areas in warming hiatus year. Meteorological stations with no mutation and no hiatus were centralized in mountainous regions, high-latitude areas and southern part of North China Plain where the surrounding areas were relatively late in mutation and warming hiatus. The mutations and warming hiatus of same kinds of temperature became late in the order of winter (1981-1990), spring, autumn and summer (1994-2008) and winter (1995-2008), autumn, summer and spring (1998-2010). The cycle from temperature mutated to warming hiatus became short in the sequence of winter, spring, autumn and summer, during which the average minimum temperature period was the longest in winter (9-24 a). The average minimum temperature mutated earliest in spring, summer and winter, which occurred during 1972-1999, 1987-1999 and 1971-2000, the average temperature was the second to mutate, while the average maximum temperature was the latest to mutate which occurred during 1975-2008, 1994-2008, 1972-2006. However, in autumn, the mutation of the average temperature was the earliest (1982-2001), the mutation of the lowest average temperature was the second, and the mutation of the highest average temperature was the latest (1987-2001). The warming hiatus of the average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature in spring and summer became late successively, which were during 1994-2008, 1997-2008 and 1997-2010, respectively, while the sequence was opposite in autumn and winter. The lengths of periods from temperature mutation to warming hiatus in each season in order were that of the average minimum temperature (9-18 a), that of the average temperature and that of the average maximum temperature (5-12 a). In particular, the three kinds of temperatures all mutated earliest in the southern of North China in summer, which is inconsistent with the rule in the whole area that the mutation became late as latitude decreases, and the temperature at most stations in this area did not mutate, which is also inconsistent with the general rule in the whole area.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155481
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作者单位: 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国

Recommended Citation:
梁珑腾,马龙,刘廷玺,等. 1951-2014年中国北方地区季节气温突变与变暖停滞年份的时空变异性[J]. 自然资源学报,2018-01-01,33(12):792-800
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