globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6479122
论文题名:
基于EOF和HHT的多站点降雨场随机模拟方法研究
其他题名: Stochastic simulation of multi-site precipitation field by empirical orthogonal function analysis and Hilbert-Huang transform
作者: 周凌峰1; 孟耀斌1; 逯超1; 伍甘霖1; 张东妮1; 张朝2
刊名: 北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0476-0301
出版年: 2019
卷: 55, 期:2, 页码:795-804
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 多站点降雨模拟 ; 主成分分析 ; 经验模态分解 ; 时域法 ; 频谱法
英文关键词: multi-site precipitation generator ; principle component analysis ; empirical mode decomposition ; time domain analysis ; spectral analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 提出一种新的基于希尔伯特谱分析的降水发生器EHS.该模型首先对原始降雨场进行高斯隐变量转换,转换后的标准化降雨场随后进行经验正交函数分析(EOFA),提取出主要空间模态和对应的主成分时间序列.对主成分序列进行经验模态分解(EMD)和希尔伯特谱分析(HAS)可以得到不同特征周期的本征模态函数(IMF)及其对应的瞬时振幅和瞬时频率,利用随机相位法仿真各项IMF分量,对模拟得到的IMF分量进行EMD重构、EOF重构和高斯隐变量反操作,即可得到多站点降雨模拟场.本文以月降雨量均值、月降雨量标准差,空间相关系数、空间连接度、自相关系数为指标,利用湘江流域实测的降水数据,通过与现有多站点降水发生器MulGETS的比较,评估多站点降水发生器EHS的性能和优缺点.研究结果表明,多站点降雨发生器EHS能很好地模拟湘江流域的降雨,重现历史降雨场的统计特征.该工具可为水文水环境模型、生态模型等提供数据支撑.
英文摘要: Weather generators (WG)that create synthetic daily weather data statistically similar to observed data involves precipitation simulation as critical component.Preserving statistical properties(e.g., spatial intermittence,low frequency variability)of precipitation is challenging.We propose a new framework for multisite precipitation generation consisting of three main components:a multi-site spatiotemporal field and corresponding temporal evolution based on empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOFA),principal component(PC)time series decomposed into intrinsic mode functions(IMFs)and subjected to Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT),and stochastic simulation(SS)achieved by assigning random phases for certain specific IMF.The proposed EOFA+HHT+SS model(EHS)is illustrated in a network of 12stations in Xiang River Basin,China,with MulGETS,a typical multisite Richardson type WG,as reference.The synthetic precipitation series were compared to records and evaluated with respect to basic statistics(mean and standard deviation of monthly precipitation),spatial dependence(spatial correlation and continuity ratio)and temporal dependence statistic(autocorrelation).EHS precipitation generator was found to have superior capability to conserve historical statistical properties of the observation,especially with respect to autocorrelation at various time lags and low frequency variability.EHS is an effective model for generating multi-site precipitation field and can be expected to generate plausible scenarios for impact study of climate change and climate variability.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155498
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.北京师范大学,应急管理部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地理科学学部, 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
2.北京师范大学,应急管理部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地理科学学部
3.北京师范大学, 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室
4.地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,
5., 北京
6.北京 100875
7.100875, 中国

Recommended Citation:
周凌峰,孟耀斌,逯超,等. 基于EOF和HHT的多站点降雨场随机模拟方法研究[J]. 北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版,2019-01-01,55(2):795-804
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