globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6542954
论文题名:
CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究
其他题名: Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Northwest Plateau of Sichuan Province
作者: 陈超1; 李秋月2; 郭斌3; 庞艳梅4
刊名: 草地学报
ISSN: 1007-0435
出版年: 2019
卷: 27, 期:3, 页码:79-84
语种: 中文
中文关键词: CENTURY模型 ; 适用性 ; 验证 ; 川西北高原 ; 草地
英文关键词: CENTURY model ; Suitability ; Validation ; Northwest plateau of Sichuan province ; Grassland
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 利用草地生态模型评价气候变化对草地生产力的影响,对于草地的可持续利用有重要意义。本文选取川西北高原的石渠和若尔盖为代表站点,基于试验站多年牧草观测资料,对草地生态系统模型(CENTURY)在川西北高原草地的适用性进行研究。结果表明:CENTURY模型模拟的石渠和若尔盖牧草地上部生物量的模拟值与观测值比较吻合,决定系数分别为0.85和0.48,均通过了0.05的显著性检验,均方根误差分别为5.4 g·m~(-2)和122.4 g·m~(-2),CENTURY模型能够较好的模拟牧草地上部生物量,适用于气候变化对川西北高原草地生产力的影响研究。基于验证后的CENTURY模型对19612017年牧草地上生物量的模拟结果显示,近57年来石渠和若尔盖牧草地上生物量均呈显著增加趋势,增加速率分别为5.4 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1)和17.2 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1)。
英文摘要: It is very important for sustainable utilization of grassland to study the impact of climate change on grassland productivity based on grassland ecosystem model.In this paper,Shiqu(32.98°N,98.10°E) and Ruoergai(33.58°N,102.97°E)were selected as representative sites in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province.The long-term observation data of grassland biomass from the livestock meteorological experiment stations were used to calibrate and validate the grassland ecosystem model(CENTURY).The results showed that there was a close consistency between the simulated and measured above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai.The determination coefficients were 0.85 and 0.45 (P<0.05).Relative mean square roots were 5.4 g·m~(-2) and 122.4 g·m~(-2).The CENTURY model could be used to simulate pasture above-ground biomass and thereafter study the impact of climate change on grass productivity in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province.The changes of grassland above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai were simulated during the past 57 years(1961-2017)based on CENTURY model.The simulation results displayed that the grassland above-ground biomass during the past 57 years increased significantly at Shiqu and Ruoergai,and the increasing rates were 5.4 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1) and 17.2 g·m~(-2)·(10 a)~(-1),respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155511
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所
2.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室
3.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 成都
4.成都, 四川
5.四川 610072
6.610066, 中国
7.北京市气候中心, 北京 100089, 中国
8.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所
9.四川省阿坝州气象局, 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室
10., 成都
11.马尔康, 四川
12.四川 610072
13.624000, 中国
14.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610072, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陈超,李秋月,郭斌,等. CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究[J]. 草地学报,2019-01-01,27(3):79-84
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