globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6544942
论文题名:
三江源区植被指数对气候变化的响应及预测分析
其他题名: Analysis on Response of Vegetation Index to Climate Change and Its Prediction in the Three-Rivers-Source Region
作者: 朱文会1; 毛飞2; 徐影3; 郑军4; 宋立雪5
刊名: 高原气象
ISSN: 1000-0534
出版年: 2019
卷: 38, 期:4, 页码:845-854
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 三江源区 ; 气候变化 ; 统计预测模型 ; 未来变化特征
英文关键词: NDVI ; Three-Rivers-Source Region ; NDVI ; climate change ; statistical prediction model ; future features
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 利用19892008年NOAA-AVHRR的NDVI旬合成资料和地面月降水量、平均气温等观测资料,分析了三江源区NDVI时空变化特征及其对气候要素变化的响应。通过建立不同季节NDVI统计预测模型,对未来40多年间不同排放情景下三江源区NDVI变化趋势进行预测分析,研究结果表明: (1)三江源区NDVI分布呈现由东南部、东部向西、向北逐渐变低的趋势。410月为植被生长季,8月NDVI达最大值。(2)针对春、夏、秋季,NDVI与气温、降水均呈显著正相关(夏季降水除外) ,春、秋季较为显著; NDVI对气温的响应显著高于降水; NDVI对前一个月的气温、降水时滞效应最为显著。(3)未来40年,在三江源区气温持续升高,降水微弱增加的气候背景下,源区平均NDVI呈显著上升趋势,前10年增速缓慢,后30年持续稳步上升,且增幅较大。源区NDVI空间分布格局基本不变,RCP8. 5情景下NDVI的高值中心较RCP4. 5范围更大。RCP4. 5情景下NDVI迅速增长期为20262035年,高值中心位于澜沧江源区; RCP8. 5情景下为20162025年和20362045年两阶段,高值中心均在长江源区。两种情景下,源区变率高值中心均表现出由北向南移动的趋势。
英文摘要: To analyze the response of NDVI to climate change and its time-lag effect in multi-time scales,synthetic data NDVI detected by NOAA-AVHRR,monthly observed data of precipitation and temperature from 1989 to 2008 were used in this paper. On this bases,we built NDVI prediction models to forecast trends of NDVI under different emission scenarios in the future. Results showed that: (1) NDVI high value areas existed in southeastern and eastern Three-Rivers-Source Region,and gradually become lower to West-north direction. Months from April to August were growing seasons for vegetation,when NDVI reached maximum in August. (2) Variations of NDVI in spring,summer,autumn displayed an obvious positive phase with temperature and precipitation excluding the summer precipitation; correlation features in spring and autumn were especially remarkable; the response of NDVI to temperature was higher than that to precipitation. Time-leg effect of NDVI in the current month showed most significant correlation feature with the last month's temperature and precipitation. (3) Under the background of Three-Rivers-Source Region's climate warming and slightly increasing precipitation from 2006 and 2050,average NDVI increased significantly,slower in the first decade,and faster in the next three decades with large growth rate. Distribution of NDVI was essentially constant in spatial,and increasing centers with highintensity and large-range under RCP8. 5 scenario were much prominent than that under RCP4. 5 scenario. Years of 20162035 were rapid growth phase with increasing center of Lancangjiang source region under RCP4. 5 scenario. Periods of 20162025 and 20362045 were rapid increasing time with high variability center of yangtze river source region under RCP8. 5 scenario. Location of high variability center in coming multi-decades shifted from north to south in Three-Rivers-Source Region under both scenarios.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155757
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学
2.中国气象科学研究院,
3., 南京
4., 江苏
5.北京 210044
6.100081, 中国
7.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081, 中国
8.中国气象局气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
9.南京信息工程大学, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
10.中国气象局资产管理事务中心工程咨询中心, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
朱文会,毛飞,徐影,等. 三江源区植被指数对气候变化的响应及预测分析[J]. 高原气象,2019-01-01,38(4):845-854
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[朱文会]'s Articles
[毛飞]'s Articles
[徐影]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[朱文会]'s Articles
[毛飞]'s Articles
[徐影]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[朱文会]‘s Articles
[毛飞]‘s Articles
[徐影]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.