globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6419449
论文题名:
基于GM(1,1)和因子分解模型的区域能源消费情景分析以辽宁省为例
其他题名: Scenario analysis on regional energy consumption based on grey model GM (1, 1) and factorization approach: A case study of Liaoning Province
作者: 姜璐1; 陈兴鹏2; 孔云霄3; 张子龙1; 薛冰4
刊名: 生态学杂志
ISSN: 1000-4890
出版年: 2019
卷: 38, 期:1, 页码:913-921
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 人地关系 ; 能源规划 ; 灰色模型 ; 因子分解 ; 东北地区
英文关键词: human-natural relationship ; energy plan ; grey model ; factorization approach ; Northeast China
WOS学科分类: BIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
中文摘要: 作为人类社会赖以生存的物质基础之一,能源是支撑经济发展和社会进步的重要资源.同时,能源消费也是影响气候变化和区域环境质量的重要因素.因此,开展区域能源消费的情景分析,对于合理控制能源消费总量和制定区域能源政策,具有重要现实意义.以东北老工业基地的典型代表辽宁省为案例,运用灰色关联方法定量分析了20002014年区域能源消耗与经济增长间的相关性.结果表明:辽宁省能源消耗总量与经济发展之间的关联度为0.93,属于能源驱动型发展方式;基于灰色模型GM(1,1)开展了20152029年的能源消费情景分析,发现第二产业的能源消耗量最大且呈指数上升趋势;基于因子分解法和节能指数方法开展区域节能效率潜力判断,认为区域节能方向主要是结构节能和技术节能;最后提出了促进能源可持续转型的若干建议.
英文摘要: As one of the fundamental resources for the survival of human society, energy is an important resource for sustaining economic development and societal progress. Energy consumption is one of the important factors which would trigger climate change and affect the quality of regional environment. Therefore, a situational analysis of regional energy consumption is important for controlling the overall energy consumption and making a reasonable regional energy policy. Taking Liaoning, an old industrial base in Northeastern China, as an example, we used the method of grey relational analysis to quantitatively analyze the correlation of energy consumption and economic growth between 2000 and 2014. The degree of correlation was 0.93,suggesting an energy-driven-model of development. Based on grey model GM( 1,1),we conducted a situational analysis of expected energy consumption between 2015 and 2029. The results showed that the secondary industry would consume the greatest amount of energy. The consumption would show an exponentially rising trend. Based on the factoring method as well as energy-saving index,we evaluated the potential and efficiency of regional energy conservancy. We concluded that regional energy conservancy should be structural energy conservancy and technology-based energy conservancy. We proposed recommendations towards sustainable transition of energy.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156092
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.兰州大学资源环境学院/中国西部循环经济研究中心
2.辽宁省环境计算与可持续发展重点实验室,
3.辽宁省环境计算与可持续发展重点实验室, 兰州
4.沈阳,
5.730000
6.110016
7.兰州大学资源环境学院/中国西部循环经济研究中心, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
8.辽宁省环境计算与可持续发展重点实验室, 辽宁省环境计算与可持续发展重点实验室, 沈阳, 辽宁 110016, 中国
9.辽宁省环境计算与可持续发展重点实验室
10.中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 辽宁省环境计算与可持续发展重点实验室
11.中国科学院污染生态与环境工程重点实验室, 沈阳
12.沈阳,
13.110016
14.110016

Recommended Citation:
姜璐,陈兴鹏,孔云霄,等. 基于GM(1,1)和因子分解模型的区域能源消费情景分析以辽宁省为例[J]. 生态学杂志,2019-01-01,38(1):913-921
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