globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6508716
论文题名:
气候变化对我国特有濒危物种水杉野生种群分布的影响
其他题名: Effects of climate change on the distribution of wild population of Metasequoia glyptostroboides,an endangered and endemic species in China
作者: 朱莹莹; 徐晓婷
刊名: 生态学杂志
ISSN: 1000-4890
出版年: 2019
卷: 38, 期:6, 页码:91-96
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水杉 ; 物种分布模型 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: BIOMOD2 ; Metasequoia glyptostroboides ; species distribution model ; climatic change ; BIOMOD2
WOS学科分类: FORESTRY
WOS研究方向: Forestry
中文摘要: 孑遗植物水杉(Metasequoia glyptostroboides)为我国特有裸子植物,国家一级保护植物。水杉野生种群仅在湖南、湖北和重庆交界之处分布。目前,虽然水杉在全球广泛栽培,但栽培水杉不能自然更新,而野生种群也存在自然更新不良、种群衰退现象。在未来气候变化条件下,水杉种群可能面临更加严峻的灭绝风险。因此,本研究根据文献和标本记载的水杉野生分布记录评估了未来气候变化对野生水杉分布的影响。采用多种物种分布模型,估计了当前气候条件下野生水杉的潜在分布分区,同时采用3种大气环流模型(CCSM4、CNRM-CM5、HadGEM2-ES)模拟的气候数据,估计了两种典型温室气体浓度增加情景下未来(2070年)野生水杉的适宜分布区。结果表明,当前气候条件下,水杉野生种群的潜在分布区与实际分布区一致,集中在湖北、重庆、湖南和贵州的交界处。到2070年,在不同的温室气体浓度增加情景下,我国水杉的潜在分布区有向现分布区的西北部迁移的倾向,但生境适宜度非常低(<0.5),成功迁移可能性极低。而现有野生分布区的适宜度也明显下降,潜在分布区消失殆尽,水杉原始种群保护工作可能面临严峻考验。
英文摘要: The relict gymnosperm species,Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & Cheng (dawn redwoods),is a well-known example of living fossil.It is an endangered,endemic and a national key protected species of China.Its wild populations survive only in the border region of Hunan,Hubei provinces and the Chongqing municipality in south-central China.Although it has been widely cultivated worldwide,the cultivated populations are incapable of regenerating naturally.The wild populations are facing rapid population decline due to reduced natural regeneration.Therefore,the human-induced climate change is likely to increase the extinction risk of M.glyptostroboides.To explore the effects of climate change on M.glyptostroboides,we established the species distribution models using its wild distribution records and current climatic data.Using these models,we predicted its future distributions based on the climate data simulated by three global circulation models (CCSM4,CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES).Our results show that the current potential suitable habitats for M.glyptostroboides are mainly the adjacent areas of Hubei,Chongqing,Hunan and Guizhou,which is consistent with its actual distribution area.The wild population of M.glyptostroboides will shift northwest to the present distribution area in the future(2070s) under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios,but with lower habitat suitability (<0.5).Our findings suggest a dramatic decline in the suitable habitats of M.glyptostroboides and this may likely wipe out its wild populations entirely in the near future.Our results suggest that climate change may threaten the wild populations of M.glyptostroboides.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156109
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 四川大学生命科学学院, 生物资源与生态环境教育部重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国

Recommended Citation:
朱莹莹,徐晓婷. 气候变化对我国特有濒危物种水杉野生种群分布的影响[J]. 生态学杂志,2019-01-01,38(6):91-96
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[朱莹莹]'s Articles
[徐晓婷]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[朱莹莹]'s Articles
[徐晓婷]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[朱莹莹]‘s Articles
[徐晓婷]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.