globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6439337
论文题名:
基于 Bai&Perron 结构断点检验的水文分期方法
其他题名: Staged hydrological method based on Bai and Perron's multiple structural breaks test
作者: 柯玮1; 谢平2; 桑燕芳3; 吴子怡1
刊名: 水力发电学报
ISSN: 1003-1243
出版年: 2019
卷: 38, 期:2, 页码:927-933
语种: 中文
中文关键词: Bai&Perron 结构断点检验 ; 水文分期 ; 澜沧江 ; 模糊统计
英文关键词: Bai and Perron' ; s multiple structural breaks test ; staged hydrological method ; Lancang River ; fuzzy statistical method
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 在气候和人类活动等变化环境下,洪水灾害频发.为了给洪水灾害防治等提供依据,文章提出了基于 Bai&Perron(简称BP)结构断点检验的水文分期方法.该方法是在传统单位根检验方法的基础上,引入结构突变成分的多结构断点的单位根检验方法.水文序列经处理后,采用BP检验方法检验结构断点,即汛期起止点,结果即可用于划分汛期.同时采用基于BP检验的水文分期方法和模糊统计法对澜沧江中下游的径流序列进行检验,划分汛期为610月,非汛期为当年11月次年5月.BP检验方法和模糊统计法的检验结果比较一致,说明基于BP结构断点检验的水文分期方法可以满足水文分期的需要,并且相较于模糊统计法,BP检验方法对于不同时间尺度的序列均有较好的适用性.
英文摘要: Under the changing environment of climate change and intensive human activities, flooding disasters occur at times. This paper presents a staged hydrological method based on Bai and Perron's (BP) multiple structural breaks test to provide a tool for analyzing hydrological data series amid such environment. This method is a unit root test of these breaks that combines structural mutation components with the traditional unit root test. For a data series, it does ordinary processing first, and then uses Bai and Perron's breaks test to check out the structural breaks, i.e. the start and end of flood season. Finally, these breaks are used to construct a corresponding staged data series. To demonstrate and verify the method, a BP test and traditional fuzzy statistical method are used to test the runoff series of the middle and lower Lancang River with the flood season from June through October. The results of these two methods agree well, showing that the staged hydrological method based on BP test is satisfactory but relatively more applicable to series of variable time scales.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156144
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.武汉大学, 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉, 湖北 430072, 中国
2.武汉大学
3.国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心, 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
4.国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心, 武汉
5.武汉,
6.430072
7.430072
8.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地水循环与地表过程重点试验室, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
柯玮,谢平,桑燕芳,等. 基于 Bai&Perron 结构断点检验的水文分期方法[J]. 水力发电学报,2019-01-01,38(2):927-933
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