Land cover and climate change are two main factors that affect the macro-control and reasonable planning of water resources in the river basin.Xilinhe River Basin was used as a research area,and Xilinhot and its four national meteorological stations were used to set the scenario model and SWAT model.The combined method was used to analyze and study separately.Through the extreme land use method,different scenarios for land use/coverage in the study area were set up to study the impact of land use/climate change on the runoff.In addition,the latest two RCP emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of climate model CMIP5 were used to predict future changes in temperature,precipitation,and runoff.The following research results are obtained.Land change had weaker impact on inter-annual change of runoff,but it had significant impact on runoff during flood season;runoff in the study area was very sensitive to climate change,and future minimum and maximum temperatures show warming trends.The future trends of precipitation and runoff remain basically the same,showing the increasing trend.