globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6463807
论文题名:
近40年三江平原极端降水时空变化特征分析
其他题名: Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain in Recent 40Years
作者: 鲁菁1; 张玉虎1; 高峰1; 刘玉洁2
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2019
卷: 26, 期:2, 页码:930-941
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 极端降水指数 ; Mann-Kendall突变 ; 累积距平 ; Hurst指数 ; 三江平原
英文关键词: extreme precipitation index ; Mann-Kendall method ; cumulative distance ; Hurst index ; Sanjiang Plain
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 研究区域尺度极端降水时空格局有助于区域整体性评估降水可能带来的风险。以三江平原21个气象站点19792014年逐日降水量观测资料为基础,选取了11个极端降水指数,应用气候倾向率、克里金插值法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、累积距平、R/S分析法和相关分析法,从降水强度、降水频率等方面分析了近40a三江平原极端降水时空变化特征,并对极端降水指数进行了趋势预测。研究表明:(1)近40a三江平原极端降水指数整体呈减少趋势,且降水量减少主要表现为降水强度降低;其中持续干燥日数(CDD)、普通日降水强度(SDII)、5日最大降水量(RX5day)存在明显突变现象,均在2000年左右发生由多到少的突变;(2)极端降水指数变化趋势存在显著空间差异,RX1day,RX5day,R99p呈减少趋势的站点所占比例分别为52.4%,61.9%,61.9%;年降水总量(PRCPTOT)整体呈现西北、东南地区上升趋势显著,东北、西南地区以下降趋势为主的降水分布格局,极端降水总量(R99P)上升幅度较大的地区主要集中于平原中部的宝清县;(3)根据极端降水指数的历史变化趋势与Hurst指数叠加结果预测可知,未来极端降水指数基本呈上升趋势。研究结果可为三江平原农业区充分利用天然降水、预估农业气象灾害影响提供科学依据。
英文摘要: Within the context of climate change,extreme climate events occurred frequently.By using climatic tendency rate,Kriging interpolation method,Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test,accumulative distance leveling,R/S analysis,the variation characteristics and trend prediction of extreme precipitation process in the target area were analyzed based on long-term(19792014)daily precipitation data from 21 meteorological stations.The results showed a decreasing trend on the extreme precipitation over the past 40 years in the Sanjiang Plain,which was mainly reflected by the precipitation intensity.Moreover,there were obvious mutations in CDD,SDII,and RX5 day.There was a significant spatial difference in the extreme precipitation variation trend.The percentages of sites with decreasing RX1 day,RX5 day and R99 p were 52.4%,61.9% and 61.9%,respectively.The total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT)was presented as increase in Northwest-Southeast and decrease in Northeast-Southwest'.According to the historical trend of the extreme precipitation index and the prediction of the superposition of the Hurst index,it can be seen that the future extreme precipitation index will present the rising trend in the future.These results can provide scientific basis for making full use of natural precipitation and predicting the influence of agrometeorological disasters in the agricultural area of Sanjiang Plain.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156163
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院, 北京 100048, 中国
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
鲁菁,张玉虎,高峰,等. 近40年三江平原极端降水时空变化特征分析[J]. 水土保持研究,2019-01-01,26(2):930-941
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