globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6498707
论文题名:
基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应
其他题名: Synergistic effect of land use and climate change on Liuyang River Basin runoff assessed by SWAT model
作者: 梁婕1; 曾光明1; 李晓东1; 雷曼琴1; 刘强1
刊名: 水资源与水工程学报
ISSN: 1672-643X
出版年: 2019
卷: 30, 期:2, 页码:93-102
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流 ; 土地利用 ; 气候变化 ; 协同向应 ; SWAT模型 ; CA- Markov模型 ; 浏阳河流域
英文关键词: runoff ; land use change ; climate change ; synergistic effect ; SWAT model ; CA - Markov model ; Liuyang River Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 气候和土地利用同时作用于流域径流,影响着流域水资源的量和质.以浏阳河流域为例,基于SWAT模型和情景分析方法定量评估未来流域内土地利用和气候变化对径流的作用.首先采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫( CA- Markov)模型模拟浏阳河流域2020和2050年的土地利用空间格局,其次在WorldClim数据库中获得未来流域内气候变化数据,最后采用SWAT模型定量评估未来不同情境下土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响.研究结果表明:未来浏阳河流域林地比例下降、城市建设用地和耕地比例增加;气候呈暖干趋势; 2020和2050年,土地利用变化时,浏阳河榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少2. 42和0. 96 m~3/s;气候变化时,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少3. 02和1. 13 m~3;土地利用和气候变化综合影响下,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少8. 54和4. 27 m~3/s;说明浏阳河流域径流的变化对气候响应更加敏感,土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响呈非线性协同作用.
英文摘要: Climate change and land use tend to affect watershed runoff simultaneously,which could potentially have a strong effect on the quantity and quality of water resources. This paper takes Liuyang River Basin as an example,to quantitatively assessing the synergistic impacts of runoff caused by land use and climate change in the future by applying SWAT model and scenario analysis. Firstly,the CA - Markov model was utilized to simulate spatial land use patterns of the study area in the years 2020 and 2050. Secondly,the weather data from WorldClim were obtained to represent the future climate change in study area. Lastly,SWAT model was established in Liuyang River Basin to simulate the runoff and thus quantitatively evaluate the effects of land use and climate change on runoff in the future. Results showed the area of forest would decrease,but the urban constructions and cultivated land would increase in the future. The future weather in Liuyang River Basin tends to be warmer and drier. The runoff of the Langli Station in the basin was anticipated to decline to 2. 42 m~3 /s in 2020 and 0. 96 m~3 /s in 2050 under the land use change scenarios. The runoff was declined to 3. 02 m~3 /s in 2020 and 1. 13 m~3 /s in 2050 under the climate change scenarios. Under the land use and climate change scenarios,the runoff was predicted to be decreased to 8. 54 m~3 /s and 4. 27 m~3 /s in 2020 and 2050,respectively. It revealed that the runoff in Liuyang River Basin tends to be more sensitive to climate change. In addition,the synthesized impacts of land use change and climate change to Liuyang River basin is nonlinear.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156177
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.湖南大学环境科学与工程学院
2.湖南大学,
3.环境生物与控制教育部重点实验室, 长沙
4.长沙, 湖南
5.湖南 410082
6.410082, 中国

Recommended Citation:
梁婕,曾光明,李晓东,等. 基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应[J]. 水资源与水工程学报,2019-01-01,30(2):93-102
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