The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae) has been listed as the quarantine pest and currently absent in China. In order to understand the suitable area and suitable levels of this fly in China, CLIMEX was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of R. cerasi under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the potential geographical distribution of this pest was north of Yangtze River. With the climate change, the marginal and suitable range of this pest in China would increase and the optimal range would decrease in 2030 and 2080. The overall suitable range would increase by 48.4* 10~4 km~2 under 2030 A1B scenario and decrease by 3.4* 10~4, 5.7* 10~4,5.7 * 10~4 km~2 under 2030 A2 and 2080 A1B, A2 scenarios, respectively. Quarantine measures of R. cerasi should be strengthened in order to prevent its introduction and protect the cherry industry in China.