Potential distribution area and dynamic change of Quercus cocciferoides Hand.-Mazz.(a representative tree species in dry-hot valley of Southwest China) were studied by using MaxEnt model.Based on 91 reliable distribution records and 7 bioclimatic variables,the simulation result shows that potential distribution of Q.cocciferoides at present is constrained by both temperature factor(isothermality,monthly mean diurnal range of temperature,and annual mean temperature) and precipitation factor (precipitation of the driest month),and isothermality is the primary factor affecting its potential distribution at present.The potential distribution area of Q.cocciferoides is consistent with its actual distribution,and the highly suitable areas at present are located in plateau in Central Yunnan and Jinsha River watershed from North Yunnan to South Sichuan;in the last glacial maximum,high suitable areas are located in Central and Southeast Yunnan,and retreat southeastward and area of central distribution area decreases;in the mid-holocene,overall distribution area is relatively stable;in the future (in 2070),high suitable area is basically identical to that at present,but moderate and low suitable areas slightly expand northward.Southeast Yunnan and northern Indo-China Peninsula might be the south refuge of Q.cocciferoides in the last glacial maximum,and dry-hot valley in Southwest China might be the important passage for the migration and spread of Q.cocciferoides in the glacial-interglacial period.According to the comprehensive research results,Q.cocciferoides distributed in dry-hot valley of Southwest China should be protected,especially the population located in Southeast Yunnan.