Using the 27 model current data in 1 990 s and the future meteorological data under the scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the Fifth Coupled Mode International Comparison Program CMIP5 and the observed data to evaluate the model performance for simulating the meteorological elements. The results show that CanESM2,CNRM-CM5,MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3 models have the best simulation performance for precipitation. Using the data of the above four climate models,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index ( SPEI), which is an index describing the intensity of drought risk,was calculated. Based on the information diffusion theory, the surpassing probability in different drought levels was estimated. On this basis,the analysis of the future climate change characteristics of multi-models under different typical concentration paths ( RCPs) was analyzed. The results show that the change of light drought risk in the future is most significant compared to the 1 990 s( P < 0.05). The areas with the highest increase rates of droughts surpassing probability are located in the western and southern around Bohai Sea regions. The west of Liaohe River Basin is a moderately and severely high-risk region. The sub-high value regions are located in the southern part of Liaoning Province,including the Bohai Sea region; The degree of in the north is great,and the law of change over time under different future scenarios are different; risk variation in the eastern and central regions are relatively stable under each scenario,which perform ultra-low and low and low and medium risks respectively.