globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5154767
论文题名:
基于BCSD降尺度方法的黄河源区气候变化预测
其他题名: Climate change forecasting in source region of Yellow River based on BCSD downscaling method
作者: 段小兰1; 郝振纯2; 陈奕1
刊名: 河海大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 1000-1980
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期:3, 页码:195-199
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候模式 ; 降尺度 ; 黄河源区 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: BCSD ; GCM ; BCSD ; downscaling ; source region of Yellow River ; climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 采用BCSD降尺度方法,根据黄河源区16个气象站基准期(19611990年)的逐日降水量、气温,最高气温和最低气温资料,对IPCCAR4中的20个GCM模式在A1B情景下的气象资料进行降尺度研究,并简单论证了BCSD的降尺度效果及其结果的可信性。基于降尺度分析结果,预测在 A1B情景下,黄河源区温度普遍升高,增幅约为0. 032 ℃ /a,降水量呈现波动状微弱上升趋势,增幅约为0. 50 mm/a,同时从流域空间分布上看,东南部降水和气温的增加效果显著,一定程度上可认为黄河源区东南部有暖湿化的演变趋势。
英文摘要: The bias-corrected and spatially and temporally downscaled (BCSD) method was used to downscale 20 GCM in IPCC AR4 in an A1B scenario in the source region of the Yellow River based on the data of daily precipitation, daily temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature from 16 meteorological stations during the baseline period from 1961 to 1990. The performance and the confidence of BCSD are demonstrated in brief. The downscaling results show that, in the future, in the source region of the Yellow River, the temperature will increase by 0. 032℃ per year and the precipitation will increase by 0. 50 mm per year, with fluctuations and a slightly increasing trend, in the A1B scenario. Meanwhile, the temperature and precipitation are increasing significantly in the southeastern area, indicating that the climate there is becoming warm and humid.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156537
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.福州市规划设计研究院城市研究中心, 福州, 福建 350003, 中国
2.河海大学, 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210098, 中国

Recommended Citation:
段小兰,郝振纯,陈奕. 基于BCSD降尺度方法的黄河源区气候变化预测[J]. 河海大学学报. 自然科学版,2014-01-01,42(3):195-199
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