globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5116808
论文题名:
基于HP滤波的气候产量分离方法探讨
其他题名: Exploration of Method in Separating Climatic Output Based on HP Filter
作者: 王桂芝1; 陆金帅1; 陈克垚2; 吴先华3
刊名: 中国农业气象
ISSN: 1000-6362
出版年: 2014
卷: 35, 期:2, 页码:195-199
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 粮食产量 ; 滤波分解 ; 5a滑动平均 ; Logistic拟合
英文关键词: Grain yield ; Filter decomposition ; 5 - year moving average ; Logistic fitting
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 本文尝试将经济学中HP滤波分解的原理应用于长时间粮食单产序列的气候产量分离建模, 以提高产量分离的精确度。利用1961 -2011年全国粮食单产数据, 采用HP滤波法进行气候产量分离, 得出相应的趋势产量方程, 同时采用5a滑动平均和Logistic拟合法分别建立趋势产量计算模型, 然后从实际产量数据序列中分离出相应的气候产量, 将3种方法所得结果进行比较。结果表明:3种方法所建立的趋势产量计算模型均通过0.01水平的显著性检验, 但HP滤波法模拟的趋势产量与实际产量的变化趋势吻合, 研究期产量在增长过程中有明显波动, 反映了实际产量的变化特点;5a滑动平均法模拟的趋势产量变化趋势与HP滤波法相似, 但变化幅度相对较小;Logistic拟合法模拟的趋势产量明显高于实际产量, 并一直处于增长的态势, 与实际情况有差异。研究结果反映出HP滤波分解在进行长时间序列的趋势产量拟合过程中具有一定优势, 不仅操作简单且产量分离结果符合实际, 适用的数据广泛并具有很强的包容性。
英文摘要: In order to improve the accuracy of yield separation, the article attempted to apply the HP filter decomposition method to separating climatic output from long time-sequence grain yield. The paper first considered three methods, HP filter, 5-year moving average and Logistic fitting to construct the trend equations for the grain output respectively, based on the climatic output from 1961 to 2011. The three methods were compared by the trend changes and the fluctuation range. The results showed that the equations established by the three methods were all significant for the significance level 0. 01. The output trend simulated by HP filter was coincided with the fact and appeared an obvious fluctuation in the research period, which reflected the characteristic of the actual yield. Meanwhile, the output trend simulated by 5-year moving average method was similar to that of HP filter method, but the changing range of the trend change was relatively slow. The output simulated by Logistic fitting was obviously higher than the actual yield and retained a growing status during the research period, which was different to the actual yield. It showed that, HP filter has more advantages to model the separating climatic output from long time-sequence grain yield with, on one hand, the operating process is more easy and the climatic output simulated by this method agrees with the fact, on the other hand, the data had strong inclusiveness.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156538
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
2.国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
3.南京信息工程大学经济管理学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王桂芝,陆金帅,陈克垚,等. 基于HP滤波的气候产量分离方法探讨[J]. 中国农业气象,2014-01-01,35(2):195-199
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