globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5264473
论文题名:
基于CMIP5多模式结果评估人类活动对全球典型干旱半干旱区气候变化的影响
其他题名: Impacts of anthropogenic activities on climate change in arid and semiarid areas based on CMIP5 models
作者: 李春香; 赵天保; 马柱国
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2014
卷: 59, 期:30, 页码:2972-2988
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 人类活动 ; CMIP5多模式 ; 气候变化 ; 干旱半干旱区 ; 气温 ; 降水
英文关键词: anthropogenic activity ; CMIP5 ; climate change ; arid and semiarid regions ; temperature ; precipitation
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于CMIP5多模式的历史试验(考虑所有驱动因子)以及单因子强迫气候归因试验结果,评估了温室气体、气溶胶、土地利用及所有人类活动对全球典型干旱半干旱区气候变化的影响. 结果表明, 所有人类活动和温室气体强迫会引起全球陆地显著增温, 特别是由温室气体强迫引起的北半球中高纬地区近60年的增温幅度几乎是历史变化的2~3倍, 气溶胶的降温效应则对近60年来的全球变暖具有明显的抑制作用, 土地利用在大多数干旱半干旱区具有微弱的降温作用. 所有人类活动和温室气体强迫会使大多数陆地及干旱半干旱区的降水增加, 而气溶胶和土地利用的影响则存在明显的区域差异和不确定性. 近60年, 中国北方干旱半干旱区的气温和降水变化受人类活动的影响最为显著. 基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)的结果, 大多数地区气温和降水的年代际和多年代际变化特征均是所有人类活动综合作用"同步叠加"在自然变化之上的一种结果; 其中, 气溶胶在大多数地区显著促进温度的多年代际变化, 土地利用在澳大利亚地区则起到明显的抑制作用; 对降水的多年代际变化而言, 气溶胶的贡献相对比较突出, 而温室气体和土地利用对全球降水的多年代尺度特征有明显的促进作用.
英文摘要: Based on all (ALL) forcing and single-forcing runs from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) simulations, the present paper examines the anthropogenic influence of greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic aerosols (AA), land use (LU) and combined anthropogenic (Ant) effects on climate change in global arid and semiarid regions. Significant warming is a robust feature over the global land as a response to Ant and GHG forcings, and the warming rate from the latter forcing is two to three times that of ALL forcing results over the past 60 years. AA produces remarkable cooling over the global land surface, whereas LU leads to slight cooling in most arid and semiarid areas. GHG- and Ant-driven increases of precipitation are found in most land areas, especially in arid and semiarid regions. AA and LU produce substantial variation of precipitation over various areas, and current uncertainties are relatively great in AA and LU forcing runs. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used to analyze temporal scales of annual temperature and precipitation. The results show that interdecadal and multidecadal variations of temperature and precipitation are attributable to combined natural and anthropogenic forcings in most arid and semiarid regions, where AA dominates variations of both temperature and precipitation on multidecadal timescales. Both GHG and LU have positive effects on multidecadal changes of precipitation over arid and semiarid regions globally. However, the latter significantly prevents multidecadal changes of temperature over arid and semiarid regions of Australia.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156593
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作者单位: 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李春香,赵天保,马柱国. 基于CMIP5多模式结果评估人类活动对全球典型干旱半干旱区气候变化的影响[J]. 科学通报,2014-01-01,59(30):2972-2988
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