globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5188733
论文题名:
基于状态空间模型构建我国固定资产投资的SWI景气指数
其他题名: Constructing Chinese Investment SWI Index Based on' State Space Model
作者: 王亚芬
刊名: 数学的实践与认识
ISSN: 1000-0984
出版年: 2014
卷: 44, 期:11, 页码:92-102
语种: 中文
中文关键词: SWI景气指数 ; 固定资产投资 ; 状态空间模型
英文关键词: SWI climate index ; state space model ; investment
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 从众多经济指标中选取了固定资产投资的先行、一致指标组,利用所选择的指标基于状态空间模型,采用Kalman滤波估计方法得到了固定资产投资的一致和先行SWI景气指数.对一致指数的分析表明,自1998年以来我国固定资产投资经历了蓬勃扩张的投资长周期和两轮振荡波动的投资短周期,从2008年开始在国际金融危机蔓延和我国经济结构调整的大背景下固定资产投资进入相对平稳增长期.通过对先行合成指数的分析,认为十二五期间投资将保持稳定增长,出现大起大落的可能性很小.
英文摘要: This paper chooses investment leading and coincident indicators from more than 200 economic index, then constructs Chinese investment SWI index based on State Space Model and Kalman Filtering. This paper also analyses the cyclical fluctuation characteristics and trend. The coincident composite index analysis shows that, since 1998 the investment in China experienced rapid expansion of long period and two short wave cycles. Investment got into relatively stable growth period in 2008, investment coincident composite index has significantly declined Since 2011 April. Based on the analysis of the leading composite index, this paper argues that investment will maintain steady growth in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, large swings is unlikely.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156705
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院, 大连, 辽宁 116025, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王亚芬. 基于状态空间模型构建我国固定资产投资的SWI景气指数[J]. 数学的实践与认识,2014-01-01,44(11):92-102
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