globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5523045
论文题名:
1981~2010年陕西潜在蒸散量时空特征及其对气候因子的响应
其他题名: Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Potential Evaporation and Climatic Factors on the Impact in Shaanxi Province in 1981-2010
作者: 韦振锋; 陈思源; 黄毅
刊名: 地理科学
ISSN: 1000-0690
出版年: 2015
卷: 35, 期:8, 页码:1033-1041
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 潜在蒸散量 ; Penman-Monteith公式 ; 陕西省 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: potential evaporation ; Penman Monteith formula ; Shaanxi Province ; climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于1981~2010年陕西地区16个气象站观测日值数据,通过联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸散量,并以Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen趋势度以及小波分析潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征,同时利用多元回归分析气候因子对其影响强度。结果表明:① 1981~2010年潜在蒸散量呈上升趋势,增速约为3.1 mm/a,没有通过0.05显著水平检验,呈弱减-强增-减变化波动。② 研究区潜在蒸散量存在2 a、5 a、8 a、22 a、32 a左右的震荡周期,震荡能量最大是32 a,其次是22 a。在1992年左右出现一次明显的突变,刚好是震荡能量最大32 a周期上发生波动。③ 纬度跨度大和地形复杂使得陕西地区潜在蒸散量空间差异明显。多年平均潜在蒸散量在166.9~1 367.5 mm之间,其中秦巴山一带潜在蒸散量值偏高,其次是陕北地区,关中平原潜在蒸散量值最低。变化趋势呈南北递减,陕南地区潜在蒸散量呈明显的增加趋势,关中地区呈增加趋势,陕北地区呈减少趋势。④ HURST指数分布沿东西向递减,其中在0.4~0.5之间占整个研究区的77.11%,说明大部分地区未来潜在蒸散量变化将与过去变化呈弱的反相持续性变化。⑤ 潜在蒸散量有明显的季节差异,夏季和春季变化最明显,其次是秋季和冬季,其中夏季贡献占主导,其次是春季,贡献最少的是秋季和冬季。⑥ 平均气温、相对湿度和风速对潜在蒸散量的影响较大,其中平均气温的作用最大且呈正影响,其次是相对湿度的影响,但对潜在蒸散量呈负作用。而日照时数和平均气压对潜在蒸散呈弱的正作用。
英文摘要: The temporal and spatial variations of characteristics of potential evaporation in Shaanxi Province is analyzed by the methods of Mann-Kendall, the trend of Sen, and the wavelet analysis, at the same time, the strength of the impact on climate factors is analyzed by the methods of multiple regression analysis, through the Penman Monteith - the formula to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration recommended by the United Nations food and agriculture organization(FAO), on the basis of 16 weather stations observation log data in 1981-2010. The results show that, potential evaporation presents a increasing trend in 1981-2010, with the growth rate reaching about 3.1 mm/a, and it does not pass significant level inspection of 0.05. Presenting a volatility trend of"Weak reduction-strong increase-decreases", which appears a turning point in the early 1990s and in the late 1990s.There exists an oscillation cycle showing about 2 a, 5 a, 8 a,22 a,32 a in the study area, the biggest shock energy is 32 a, and the second is 22 a. In the research period, it appears an obvious mutation in 1992, with the match of the biggest shock energy in 32 a of the cycle fluctuation. The interspace of the potential evaporation in Shaanxi province shows an obvious difference owing to the span latitude and complex topography. The average amount of the potential evaporation is between 166.9-1 367.5 mm for many years, among them, the value of the potential evapotranspiration in Qin Bashan area is the highest,the second is in shanbei region, and the lowest area is in the guanzhong plain. The tendency of the variation shows a descending trend from north to south, the areas where the obvious increase trend of the potential evaporation is in southern shaanxi region, so the guanzhong area and the northern shaanxi region showed a trend of decrease. The HURST index distribution presents a decreasing trend from east to west,which accounted for 77.11% of the entire study area with the index between 0.4-0.5. It shows that there is a weak inverse continuous changing of the potential evapotranspiration in the future and in the past. There is an obvious seasonal difference in the potential evaporation,among them, the change in summer and spring is most obvious,followed by autumn and winter. The dominated rate of contribution is in summer, followed by the spring,and autumn and winter is the least. The average temperature, relative humidity and wind speed have a larger influence on the potential evaporation, the average temperature play the biggest role and the effect is positive, followed by the relative humidity, but the effects on the potential evaporation is negative. Average sunshine time and air pressure play a weak positive role on the potential evaporation.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156733
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 广西财经学院, 南宁, 广西 530003, 中国

Recommended Citation:
韦振锋,陈思源,黄毅. 1981~2010年陕西潜在蒸散量时空特征及其对气候因子的响应[J]. 地理科学,2015-01-01,35(8):1033-1041
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