globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5485189
论文题名:
过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响
其他题名: Forcing and impacts of warm periods in the past 2000 years
作者: 葛全胜1; 华中1; 郑景云1; 方修琦2; 萧凌波1; 刘健3; 杨保4
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2015
卷: 60, 期:18, 页码:1727-1734
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 过去2000年 ; 典型暖期 ; 气候变化机制 ; 驱动机制 ; 影响与适应
英文关键词: past 2000 years ; warm periods ; mechanism of climate change ; external forcings ; impacts and adaptation
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 通过对中国不同地区气候序列重建与暖期气候特征、气候驱动因子变化分析与典型暖期成因机制模拟诊断、暖期气候对中国社会经济的影响与人类适应、北半球温度变化及典型暖期协同特征等问题的研究,发现:(1)20世纪气候增暖在过去2000年中并非空前,但20世纪气候增暖在北半球几乎同步,而中世纪增暖在空间上则存在幅度和位相差异;这主要是因为20世纪全球增暖主要受温室气体增加驱动的"大气稳定机制"、而中世纪增暖主要受太阳短波辐射变化驱动的"海洋恒温机制"所致.(2)与2008年初中国南方"雨雪冰冻"相似的极端寒冷事件可能对温度年代际变化有早期预警意义,当前的"增暖停滞"可能是自然变率导致的气候由暖转冷的一个早期信号.(3)中国历史上的社会经济波动与气候变化之间存在"冷抑暖扬"的对应特征;但与暖期相伴的社会经济发展与人口膨胀也增加了对资源与环境的压力,使得在出现温度下降、降水减少等重大气候转折时,容易导致人地关系失衡、甚至触发社会危机.这些结果增进了对年代至百年尺度气候变化特征与机制的理解,也对我国适应未来气候变化具有参考价值.
英文摘要: The purposes of the research project on forcing and impacts of warm periods in the past 2000 years, which was funded by the China Global Change Research Program, are summarized as follows: to reconstruct past climate changes in different regions and the pattern of warm periods over China, to analyze climate forcing and diagnose the mechanisms in warm periods by climate change simulations, to assess the impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems and human adaptation to warm periods in China, and to investigate Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature changes and the coherences/differences in regional temperature anomalies during warm periods across the NH. The new findings are highlighted as follows: (1) Warming in the 20th century was not unprecedented in the past 2000 years. However, warming in the 20th century was almost simultaneous over the entire NH, whereas warming in the Medieval Warm Period was heterogeneous in amplitude and phase at regional and continental scales. The difference could be mainly attributed to the mechanism driven by different external forcings. Warming in the 20th century was mainly driven by a stabilization mechanism, forced by increased greenhouse gases, whereas the Medieval Warm Period was mainly driven by a thermostat mechanism, forced by increased solar radiation. (2) Extremely cold winter events, such as the snowstorm in southern China in early 2008, was the early warning of decadal cooling in historical terms. It suggests that the recent global-warming hiatus might be an early signal of cooling induced by natural variability. (3) In Chinese history, warm periods usually corresponded to prosperous times for the socio-economy, whereas it was contrary in cold periods. However, socio-economic development and population growth in warm periods may increase pressures on the natural environment system because of increased resource utilization. Such pressure could lead to disequilibria in the human-environment system and trigger social crises when abrupt climate change (such as cooling and precipitation decrease) occurs. These results can help in improving our understanding on the characteristics and mechanisms of decadal to centennial climate change as well as provide insight for successful adaptation to climate change in the future.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156820
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
2.北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
3.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 教育部虚拟地理环境重点实验室
4.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国
5.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
葛全胜,华中,郑景云,等. 过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响[J]. 科学通报,2015-01-01,60(18):1727-1734
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