globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5408639
论文题名:
基于区域气候与城市发展耦合模型的气候变化适应度评价以上海市为例
其他题名: Adaptability Assessment of Climate Change Based on Regional Climate System and Urban Growth Coupling ModelA Case Study of Shanghai
作者: 李响; 钱敏蕾; 徐艺扬; 陆君; 王祥荣; 谢玉静; 樊正球
刊名: 复旦学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0427-7104
出版年: 2015
卷: 54, 期:2, 页码:210-219
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 区域气候变化 ; 城市发展 ; 适应度 ; 耦合关系 ; 上海市
英文关键词: regional climate change ; urban growth ; adaptation ; coupling relationship ; Shanghai
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 借鉴城市化和生态环境耦合模型,选取最直观的气温变化衡量区域气候变化,以经济、农业、社会和资源环境系统作为城市发展各项子系统,构建区域气候与城市发展的耦合模型;在分析区域气候与城市发展各项子系统耦合关系的基础上,创新的提出差异化评价标准和办法;并以上海市为例,基于50a上海市气温变化特征分析,评估上海市2000~2012年气候变化适应度.研究表明: 近50a上海市气温显著上升;2000~2012年,经济、社会和资源环境系统均呈现正向稳定发展状态;由于城市发展导致上海市耕地面积和种植面积不断萎缩,农业系统因此呈现衰退状态;受区域气温波动变化影响,经济、社会、资源环境系统的适应性呈现波动变化,但总体呈现为适应型;农业系统呈现不适应状态,主要为人为原因,受气候变化影响相对较小.
英文摘要: By means of the coupling model of urbanization and eco-environment, a coupling model of climate system and urban growth was established. Changing of temperature was used to represent regional climate change. Economy, agriculture, society, resource and environment were taken as the subsystem for adaptability assessment to climate change. Based on the analysis of coupling relationship between climate system and other subsystems, a diverse evaluation system was firstly established to assess the adaptability. Based on the analyze of climate change features in Shanghai during 1960-2012, we assessed the adaptability of Shanghai to climate change. Results showed that, in the near 50 years, Shanghai has experienced a remarkable increase of temperature. During 2000-2012, economy, society and resource & environment in Shanghai all have been improved. However, agriculture subsystem declined since farmlands had been occupied for construction. Effected by the changed climate, the adaptability of economy, society and resource & environment subsystem fluctuated in recent years. Overall, economy, society and resource & environment system in Shanghai adapted to climate change. However, the agriculture subsystem was unadaptable to climate change. The main reason was human intervention, which was hardly related to climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156839
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200433, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李响,钱敏蕾,徐艺扬,等. 基于区域气候与城市发展耦合模型的气候变化适应度评价以上海市为例[J]. 复旦学报. 自然科学版,2015-01-01,54(2):210-219
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