The climate change has important effects on agriculture in which climatic variables are the main contributor to yield and have received wide concerns globally. In order to explore the influence of climate change in arid area and main meteorological factors on maize yield under different planting patterns, the study first calibrated and validated the parameters of AquaCrop model for open field planting, single-row ridge planting and all-film double-furrow sowing in arid regions, with the data of field experiment from 2014 to 2016. Calibration parameter mainly included the maximum canopy coverage, reference harvest index, normalized water productivity, readily evaporable water, and so on. The research also designed different temperature and precipitation gradients based on 35-year historical meteorological data from 1981 to 2015, and simulation method was used to analyze the maize yield trends under different situations. Air temperature levels were: 1) to decrease by 1.5 ℃ in daily mean temperature (A_1); 2) historical daily temperature (A_2); 3) to increase by 1.5 ℃ in daily mean temperature (A_3). Precipitation levels were: 1) to decrease by 15% in daily precipitation (B_1); historical daily precipitation (B_2); 3) to increase by 15% in daily precipitation (B_3). The results showed the AquaCrop model could predict the maize yield and biomass with the 3 planting patterns accurately, the root mean square error of measured and simulated yield with 3 planting patterns was between 245.34 and 745.10 kg/hm~2, the normalized root mean square error was between 6.94% and 9.49%, and the tendency of simulated and tested soil water content was nearly uniform, the NRMSE of which was between 8.65% and 10.74%. Overall, the AquaCrop model was powerful to simulate crop yield, biomass and soil water content of maize in study site. Through comparing the different calibration parameters of 3 planting patterns, we could find all-film double-furrow sowing had the function of keeping moisture and improving crop yield potentially. Within the setting range, with the temperature and precipitation increasing, the range of yield fluctuation under 3 plating patterns was reduced, and the yield fluctuation of all-film double-furrow sowing was the smallest, with the slope of the average yield curve of 0.083 4, so it had a strong ability to adapt to climate change. Yield fluctuation of single-row ridge planting was the largest when temperature decreased or increased by 1.5 ℃, and the slopes of yield curves were 0.211 0 and 0.051 6, respectively. Different gradients of temperature and precipitation all had obvious influence on maize yield under open field planting, which showed that the yield under this panting pattern was more easily affected and hardly controlled for climate change. The yield potential reached the maximum in A3B3 situation (temperature and precipitation increased by 1.5 ℃ and 15%, respectively). Compared with the original climate, the yield of open field planting, single-row ridge planting and all-film double-furrow sowing averagely increased by 13.45%, 11.57% and 17.67%, respectively. Temperature had an extremely significant effect on the yield under 3 planting patterns, and the precipitation was very significant for yield under open field planting and significant for yield under single-row ridge planting and all-film double-furrow sowing. This study can provide reference for yield prediction, risk assessment and the determination of relevant management measures. In the future, more efforts should be paid to explore complex influence of climate and crop management acting together on crop production.