globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6000725
论文题名:
未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征
其他题名: Variations of Agro-Climatic Resources Under a Future Climate Scenario in the Potential Northward Region of Winter Wheat
作者: 张梦婷; 张玉静; 佟金鹤; 李阔; 潘婕; 许吟隆
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2017
卷: 13, 期:3, 页码:243-252
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 冬小麦 ; 种植北界 ; 农业气候资源
英文关键词: RCP4.5 ; RCP4.5 ; winter wheat ; northern boundary ; agro-climatic resources
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 基于区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出的RCP4.5气候情景数据分析表明,相较于19812010年,至20712097年冬小麦种植北界将平均向北移动147.8 km,北移面积约1.86*10~5 km2。选取代表光、温、水资源的9项农业气候资源指标,探究未来情景下,20212097年冬小麦潜在北移区内农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明:(1)相较于基准时段(19611990年),未来潜在北移区内光照资源变化呈减少趋势;热量资源呈明显增加趋势,在21世纪末的30年,波动性加大;降水资源整体增加趋势不明显,但波动性亦呈现增大趋势。(2)未来潜在北移区内,2030T(20212050年)、 2050T(20412070年)和2070T(20612090年)时段光照资源在研究区域的东北部减少幅度较大,而在西南部较小;热量资源在研究区域的北部增加比南部明显;降水资源则主要在研究区域的东北部增加明显。
英文摘要: Based on future climate data under RCP4.5 scenario generated from the regional climate modeling system (PRECIS), climatic northern boundary of winter wheat would move northward 147.8 km in 2071-2097 and possible planting area would increase by 1.86 *10~5 km~2 relative to 1981-2010. The variations of agro-climatic resources under RCP4.5 scenario in the potential northward region of winter wheat were analyzed based on the nine selected indexes of agro-climatic resources. Results indicated that: (1) compared with the climate baseline (1961-1990), the light resource in potential northward region would decrease; heat resource would significantly increase with an enhanced variability in the last 30 years of the 21st century; precipitation resource shows an overall slight increasing trend but with an greater fluctuation; (2) in the time slice 2030T (20212050), 2050T (20412070), and 2070T (20612090), light resource would decrease more in the northeast of study area, while less in the southwest; heat resource would increase more in northern area than southern part; precipitation resource would increase obviously in northeast of the potential northward region.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/157368
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张梦婷,张玉静,佟金鹤,等. 未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2017-01-01,13(3):243-252
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