globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6082828
论文题名:
中国气候变化与水灾发生频次的时空关系研究(1961-2010)
其他题名: Spatial Relationship between Flooding Frequency and Climate Change based on Climate Change Regionalization in China from 1961 to 2010
作者: 孔锋1; 刘凡2; 王一飞3; 方建4; 吕丽莉5
刊名: 灾害学
ISSN: 1000-811X
出版年: 2017
卷: 32, 期:4, 页码:35-42
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水灾 ; 气候变化 ; 区划 ; 极端降水 ; 时空格局 ; 中国
英文关键词: flood frequency ; climate change ; regionalization ; spatiotemporal relationship ; China
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 近年来在全球气候变化的背景下,中国多地水灾频发,造成人员伤亡、财产损毁、生态系统破坏。现有的平均态气候分区不能准确反映水灾的时空变化格局。该文筛选了《中国自然灾害报刊数据库》中的县级水灾事件,并基于中国气候变化区划(1961- 2010)统计分析了1961- 2010年中国水灾的发生频次,以揭示气候变化中不同趋势和波动变化区的水灾发生频次的时空格局。结果表明:在1961- 2010年中国暖干趋势带和暖湿趋势带内水灾次数均趋于增多,水灾发生频次与暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强的变化具有一致性。其中,在暖干趋势带内,降水波动减弱区水灾发生次数(1 612次)约是降水波动增强区次数(818次)的2倍;在暖湿趋势带内,降水波动减弱区(512次)约为降水波动增强区(1 377次)水灾次数的1/3。从气候变化背景下中国水灾发生频次的空间变化结果可知,不同的降水变化趋势、波动特征与水灾发生次数间有明显的对应关系,气候的动态变化极可能是区域水灾差异的主要影响因素。
英文摘要: Severe flooding disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention, while the relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation as well as flooding events has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Flooding disasters in China by heavy rainfall occurred frequently in recent years under the background of global climate change,which has caused terrible harm on economic and social development, life security,ecosystem,etc.,brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area; become a key factor of global & regional disasters and environmental risk; and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. It should be noticed that the spatial-temporal pattern and change of decadal flooding caused by heavy rainfall in China neither have consistency with temperature rising,nor can be explained reasonably with atmospheric and oceanic climate factors. Here we use climate change regionalization (1961-2010) featured by precipitation tendency and fluctuation to calculate flooding frequency from 1961 to 2010. The result showed that: ①flooding frequency obvious increased both in warm-dry trend zone (WDTZ) and warm-wet trend zone (WWTZ). ②In WDTZ,the flooding frequency in precipitation fluctuation decreasing regions (1 612 times) was two times more than that increasing regions (818 times). ③While in WWTZ,the flooding frequency in precipitation fluctuation decreasing regions (512 times) was one-third of that increasing regions (1 377 times). Heavy rainfall demonstrated the similar spatial-temporal pattern. The results suggested,for the first time to our knowledge,that the dynamic changes of the climate may be the main influencing factors of regional flood difference. Our findings indicate that local anthropogenic processes may shift the regional climate beyond through GHG emissions. Rapidly growing and industrializing cities and nations will need to better control the air pollution,and to anticipate and accommodate these regional climate consequences,if they are to reduce the risk of flooding and waterlogging.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/157401
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国气象局气象干部培训学院, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100081, 中国
2.北京师范大学, 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875, 中国
3.中国气象局发展研究中心, 北京 100081, 中国
4.武汉大学资源与环境科学学院, 武汉, 湖北 430079, 中国
5.中国气象局气象干部培训学院, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
孔锋,刘凡,王一飞,等. 中国气候变化与水灾发生频次的时空关系研究(1961-2010)[J]. 灾害学,2017-01-01,32(4):35-42
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