根据19952014年中西太平洋鲣鱼围网捕捞生产统计数据,选取了产量最高的22个5° * 5°的海区,结合尼诺指数划分不同的气候类型,以渔获量为指标,建立在不同气候条件下中西太平洋鲣鱼围网渔场的渔情预报模型.研究认为:在不同的气候条件下,鲣鱼产量有所波动,其中厄尔尼诺月份月总产量和月均产量最高,与拉尼娜月份产量接近,而正常年份产量最低;不同空间不同气候条件下的产量有较大差异,在130°E ~ 145°E海域,北纬5°产量明显高于南纬5°产量,同时正常月份的产量最高;在145°E ~ 165°E海域,拉尼娜月份产量最高;在165°E以东海域,拉尼娜月份产量最低;将渔获量与Nino 3.4区的SSTA建立关系,结果显示两者有着很强的相关关系,均符合正态模型( P < 0.01).模型验证的结果显示,3种气候条件下的预报结果与实际统计值间均存在显著相关关系( P < 0.01), 模型有着较高的相关系数,拟合结果较好.针对中西太平洋不同空间位置的3种气候条件下鲣鱼渔获量波动规律进行研究,为预测渔场和相关预报工作提供了新的思路.
英文摘要:
Based on the purse seine statistical data of skipjack tuna in western and central Pacific Ocean during 19952014,22 high catch fishing zone were selected,taking catch data as the index and combining different climatic conditions divided by the Nino index,to establish the forecasting model of Katsuwonus pelamisin western and central Pacific Ocean based on the different climatic conditions. The results showed that: the catch of skipjack fluctuated among different climatic conditions,the monthly total catch and monthly mean catch in El Nino were the highest,which was similar to La Nina,and higher than the normal condition; the catch among different spatial and climatic conditions had difference,the catch in 5°N was higher than 5° S,and the normal condition had the highest catch; La Nina event was the highest between the 145°E - 165° E; La Nina was the lowest eastward of 165°E; the relationship between catch and SSTA of Nino 3.4 was established,and the above two indexes had strong relationship,fit well with the Normal Model( P < 0.01). The model validation result showed that predicted results and actual results fitted well and had significant relationship in all the three climatic conditions. The spatial catch variation of skipjack tuna was analyzed under three different climatic conditions in western and central Pacific Ocean. The model can effectively provide new idea for the future work of fishing ground prediction and forecasting.