globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6447787
论文题名:
过去千年中国东部持续性严重干旱事件的模拟研究
其他题名: MODELING STUDY OF SEVERE PERSISTENT DROUGHT EVENTS OVER EASTERN CHINA DURING THE LAST MILLENNIUM
作者: 彭友兵1; 程海2; 陈凯1; 黄少鹏2
刊名: 第四纪研究
ISSN: 1001-7410
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:2, 页码:282-293
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 持续性严重干旱事件 ; 中国东部 ; 强迫因子 ; 过去千年
英文关键词: ENSO ; severe persistent droughts ; Eastern China ; climate frocings ; ENSO ; the last millenium
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 文章利用CESM1.1(公共地球系统模式)模式过去千年集合试验结果,对模拟的过去千年中国东部持续性严重干旱事件的时空特征及发生机制进行了初步分析。模式模拟出过去千年中国东部发生了7次持续性严重干旱事件,分别为883-910年、951-977年、1253~ 1305年、1327- 1346年、1471- 1488年、1587~1610年和1688-1699年干旱事件,其中仅1471~ 1488年干旱事件与中国东部旱涝指数对应较好,表明模式对中国东部干旱事件的模拟能力较低。这7次干旱事件均与模拟的ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)负位相状态相对应,揭示ENSO可能对中国东部干旱事件的发生起了非常重要的作用。模拟分析结果显示,1253~1305年干旱事件前期可能主要受火山活动驱动,后期则可能受到太阳活动和自然内部变率的影响。另外,1587~1610年干旱事件后期可能也受到火山活动的影响;883~910年和951~977年干旱事件则完全受自然内部变率的影响。对1327~ 1346年、1471~1488年和1688~1699年这3次干旱事件,无法分辨外强迫和内部变率ENSO的各自贡献。
英文摘要: We use modeled data from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) project and paleo-proxy records to examine the occurrence of severe event of persistent drought over Eastern China during the last millennium and diagnose the mechanisms. Modeled data are CESM 1.1 simulations for the CESM-LME project include an ensemble of 13 simulations with all forcings. To assess the influence of solar forcing and volcanic forcing,smaller ensembles with each forcing separately including an ensemble of 4 simulations with solar forcing and an ensemble of 5 simulations with volcanic forcing are also used. The paleo-proxy records include a data set of the dryness-wetness index(DWI) over Eastern China(25° ~ 41° N, 105° ~ 122°E,) during the last 530 years which derived from Chinese historical documents and a data set of regional DWI over Eastern China(east of approximately 25°~40°N, 105° E) during the last 1500 years. Here, severe events of persistent drought in the model are defined as periods with a rainy season (May-September) precipitation anomaly of at least widespread (over Eastern China, 25° ~40° N, 105°~122°E),persistent(less than zero for at least 10 consecutive years) and great precipitation anomaly (severe drought). To consider the intensity, we selected the periods of negative values of 10-year running mean of precipitation for Eastern China exceeding 1.31 times the standard deviation for at least 5 consecutive years. -1.31delta was used here as a threshold to classify the severity of severe drought, which corresponds closely to the drought classification scheme of 10% occurrence. The same approach is also applied to identify the severe decadal drought in the proxy data. In this drought classification, the model was simulated seven droughts over the study area during the last millennium such as those that occurred during the periods of 883 ~910, 951 ~977,1253 ~1305,1327 ~ 1346,1471 ~ 1488,1587 ~1610 and 1688 ~1699. To assess the possible linkage between the simulated severe decadal droughts and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Ocean during the last millennium,we examine the simulated Nino 3 index. It is calculated with SSTs in the box 150°~90°W,5°S~5°N. The model results suggest the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in precipitation variability, a temporally consistent relationship between the droughts and negative phases of ENSO could be found in the modeled data. The precipitation during the periods 1253 ~ 1305 exist coherent evolution among the individual all-forcing simulations is simulated leading to large fluctuations in the ensemble average. Similar to the results in all forcing simulations, the ensemble response in volcanic forcing simulations is outstandingly coherent during the early periods of the drought 1253 ~1305 and the latter periods of the drought 1587 ~1610.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/157876
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院,地球环境科学系, 西安, 陕西 710049, 中国
2.西安交通大学全球环境变化研究院, 西安, 陕西 710049, 中国

Recommended Citation:
彭友兵,程海,陈凯,等. 过去千年中国东部持续性严重干旱事件的模拟研究[J]. 第四纪研究,2019-01-01,39(2):282-293
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