globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6483408
论文题名:
2018年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析
其他题名: Features and Possible Causes of the Climatic Anomaly in China in Autumn 2018
作者: 赵俊虎; 王永光
刊名: 气象
ISSN: 1000-0526
出版年: 2019
卷: 45, 期:4, 页码:565-576
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候异常特征 ; 季节内转折 ; 成因分析 ; 印度洋海温
英文关键词: El Nino ; climatic anomaly feature ; interseasonal change ; possible causes ; El Nino ; Indian Ocean SST
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 2018年秋季我国气候异常特征总体表现为:气温呈"东高西低"的分布;东部降水呈"南北多、中间少"的分布,其中内蒙古中东部、东北、江南南部和华南大部地区降水异常偏多,而华北至江南北部降水异常偏少,且江南和西南地区降水出现明显的季节内反向分布转变特征。异常成因分析表明,秋季欧亚中高纬度槽脊活动频繁,冷空气活跃,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期偏强偏西,脊线季节内南北波动较大,西南水汽输送偏强,导致我国东部降水南北多、中间少。进一步研究表明,海温异常是影响2018年秋季我国气候异常的最主要外强迫因子,季节内El Nino由中部型向东部型发展,热带印度洋海温偶极子正位相持续,副热带南印度洋偶极子正位相发展。秋季后期El Nino影响增强,东亚副热带大气环流发生明显的季节内响应。因此,El Nino和印度洋海温的演变及其对东亚环流的影响,加上欧亚中高纬环流异常的季节内调整,二者共同导致了我国南方地区降水出现明显的东西反向的季节内变化。
英文摘要: During the autumn of 2018,the surface air temperature was below normal in West China but above normal in East China.And the distribution of precipitation in eastern China was "more in the north and south,less in the middle".The precipitation was above normal in the central and eastern part of Inner Mongolia,Northeast China,the southern part of the south of the Yangtze River and South China,but below normal in the region from North China to the northern part of the south of the Yangtze River.In addition,the precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China showed obvious seasonal reverse distribution characteristics.By analyzing the causes for the climatic anormaly,we found that in autumn,ridge and trough activities in middle and high latitudes of Eurasia were frequent,the cold air was active,the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was stronger and more westward than normal,the ridges of WPSH fluctuated greatly from north to south,and the southwest water vapor transport was stronger,resulting in the abnormal distribution of precipitation in eastern China.Further studies have shown that the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) was the major extermal forcing factor for the climatic anomalies in the autumn of 2018.The El Nino type developed from the central Pacific type (CP) El Nino to the eastern Pacific type (EP) El Nino.The positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD) turned to the positive phase of South Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD).And there was obvious response of the East Asian subtropical atmospheric circulation to the SSTA in the Pacific and Indian Ocean in autumn.Therefore,the evolution of El Nino and the SST in the Indian Ocean and their influence on the East Asia atmospheric circulation,together with the seasonal adjustment of the anomalous circulation in the middle and high latitudes in Eurasia,led to the obvious east-west interseasonal changes of precipitation in sou-thern China.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/157922
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作者单位: 国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
赵俊虎,王永光. 2018年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析[J]. 气象,2019-01-01,45(4):565-576
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