DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124671
论文题名: Lake Malawi's threshold behaviour: A stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change
作者: Bhave A.G. ; Bulcock L. ; Dessai S. ; Conway D. ; Jewitt G. ; Dougill A.J. ; Kolusu S.R. ; Mkwambisi D.
刊名: Journal of Hydrology
ISSN: 221694
出版年: 2020
卷: 584 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impacts
; Lake Malawi
; Shire River
; Stakeholder engagement
; Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP)
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Information management
; Irrigation
; Lakes
; Rivers
; Water management
; Climate change impact
; Electricity generation
; Global Climate Model projections
; Hydrological modeling
; Identification and evaluation
; Lake level simulation
; Lake-level variations
; Stakeholder engagement
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; flood
; hydrological modeling
; lake level
; simulation
; stakeholder
; streamflow
; threshold
; tributary
; East African Lakes
; Lake Malawi
; Mozambique
; Shire River
; Tanzania
英文摘要: Over 90% of Malawi's electricity generation and irrigation depend on Lake Malawi outflows into the Shire River. Recent lake level declines have raised concerns over future climate change impacts, including the risk of no outflows if the Lake Malawi Outflow Threshold (LMOT) is passed. Addressing calls for model co-production, we iteratively engage stakeholders in data collection, and eliciting local system insights and management priorities, to inform the development of a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for the Lake Malawi Shire River Basin. We use a simple model setup and manual calibration to allow for data sparsity and limited documentation of historical management decisions. The model satisfactorily captures limited observed streamflow patterns of Lake Malawi tributaries and lake level variations for the period 1960–2009, however, small errors in lake level simulation significantly affect simulation of monthly outflows. The riparian countries, Malawi, Tanzania and Mozambique contribute approximately 55%, 41% and 4% respectively to lake inflows (1960–2009 average). Forced with 29 bias-corrected global climate model projections (2021–2050) and assuming no change in current operating rules of key infrastructure, the WEAP model simulates wide-ranging changes. These include much higher lake levels that would cause downstream floods, and much lower lake levels, including 11 projections that fall below the LMOT. Both outcomes would have major implications for downstream hydropower and irrigation. Future water management plans require identification and evaluation of strategies that can address multi-year shifts in lake levels and the uncertainty inherent in future climate and hydrological model outputs. © 2020 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158240
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, United Kingdom; Centre for Water Resources Research, University of KwaZulu Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN19RH, United Kingdom; Malawi University of Science and Technology, P.O Box 5196, Limbe, Malawi
Recommended Citation:
Bhave A.G.,Bulcock L.,Dessai S.,et al. Lake Malawi's threshold behaviour: A stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2020-01-01,584