DOI: 10.1080/10549811.2019.1632721
论文题名: Modeling spatiotemporal distribution of Dipterocarpus turbinatus Gaertn. F in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios
作者: Islam K. ; Rahman M.F. ; Islam K.N. ; Nath T.K. ; Jashimuddin M.
刊名: Journal of Sustainable Forestry
ISSN: 10549811
出版年: 2020
卷: 39, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; conservation planning
; habitat suitability
; MaxEnt
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Conservation
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Population distribution
; Bioclimatic variables
; Climate change scenarios
; Conservation planning
; Global climate model
; Habitat suitability
; MaxEnt
; Maximum entropy species distribution modeling
; Spatiotemporal distributions
; Climate change
; accuracy assessment
; bioclimatology
; climate change
; conservation management
; deciduous tree
; geographical distribution
; habitat management
; spatiotemporal analysis
; Bangladesh
; Conservation
; Dipterocarpus
; Distribution
; Ecosystems
; Entropy
; Forestry
; Test Methods
; Bangladesh
; Dipterocarpus turbinatus
英文摘要: Climate change affects plant phenology, spatial distribution, and even extinction of vulnerable species. Dipterocarpus turbinatus, locally known as garjan, is a valuable but vulnerable native tree species of Bangladesh whose spatial distribution under future climate change scenarios is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of present and future climatic scenarios on spatiotemporal distribution of D. turbinatus. We used maximum entropy species distribution modeling to perform the present and future habitat suitability of garjan under different climate scenarios. The representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 were considered for bioclimatic variables from the Global Climate Model–Hadley Global Environment Model 2 Atmosphere-Ocean. The predictive accuracy of the model was more than 97% in both the training and test data. The prediction results suggest that compared to present areas (7624 km2) under moderate habitat class it will be 2755 km2 and 1239 km2, respectively, in 2050 and 2070 under RCP2.6 scenario and decreases more rapidly under RCP8.5 scenario. Besides, the prediction also indicates that the habitat of the species will shift toward the high altitudinal south-eastern corner of the country whereas local extinction might occur in the north-eastern part during 2070. © 2019, © 2019 Taylor & Francis. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158425
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Systems Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Division of Forest and Biomaterials Sciences, Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh; School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Semenyih, Malaysia; Department of Forestry, The Papua New Guinea University of Technology, Lae, Papua New Guinea
Recommended Citation:
Islam K.,Rahman M.F.,Islam K.N.,et al. Modeling spatiotemporal distribution of Dipterocarpus turbinatus Gaertn. F in Bangladesh under climate change scenarios[J]. Journal of Sustainable Forestry,2020-01-01,39(3)