DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102791
论文题名: Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation
作者: Ghahramani A. ; Kingwell R.S. ; Maraseni T.N.
刊名: Agricultural Systems
ISSN: 0308521X
出版年: 2020
卷: 180 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation
; Bio-economic
; Climate change
; GHG
; Mixed farm systems
; Modelling
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; agricultural modeling
; climate change
; cropping practice
; greenhouse gas
; land use change
; livestock farming
; mixed farming
; Australia
英文摘要: Mixed crop-livestock farming systems provide food for over half of the global population. However, some important food exporting countries, like Australia, are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change and may require transformative adaptations if they are to continue their role in food exportation. This paper assesses the potential impacts of projected climate change by 2030 (0.4–1.6° increase in mean temperature) on Australian mixed crop-livestock systems and examines the consequences of shifts in land allocations to cropping and grazing, in these systems, as an adaptation option. Farm bio-economic simulation models were developed for these mixed enterprise systems in several regions of Australia. These models were based on biophysically coupled crop, pasture, and livestock simulation models that in turn drew on site-based downscaled climate projection datasets. The farm models calculated farm profitability and risk measures. A range of land use changes was investigated. At drier locations facing adverse climate change, results showed a transition towards a greater emphasis on livestock production could be beneficial when assessed against multiple criteria of farm profit, downside financial risk, and environmental damage. We highlight some industry and government actions and policies that could facilitate these preferred adaptation strategies at such locations. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158457
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: University of Southern Queensland, Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems, Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment, Australia; University of Western Australia, The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Ghahramani A.,Kingwell R.S.,Maraseni T.N.. Land use change in Australian mixed crop-livestock systems as a transformative climate change adaptation[J]. Agricultural Systems,2020-01-01,180