DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102172
论文题名: Spatial modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Lantana camara in Southern Zimbabwe
作者: Ncube B. ; Shekede M.D. ; Gwitira I. ; Dube T.
刊名: Applied Geography
ISSN: 1436228
出版年: 2020
卷: 117 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bioclimatic data
; Habitat suitability
; Savanna ecosystems
; Species distribution models
Scopus关键词: Lantana camara
英文摘要: Although climate change influences the distribution of invasive plant species, there is limited knowledge regarding its potential effects on Lantana camara distributions, especially in southern African savanna ecosystems. In this study, we predict the potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of Lantana camara as well as determine the ecosystems at risk from Lantana camara invasion in Matabeleland South Province of Zimbabwe. To do this, ensemble modelling consisting of three Species Distribution Models (SDMs) was coupled with three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) for the 2070s. Results show that, on average, the bioclimatically suitable habitat of Lantana camara is projected to increase in the province by between ~3 and 33% and 32 and 82% under RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. On average, the habitat suitability of Lantana camara is projected to increase by 5892 km2, which is about 65% of the total area of southern Zimbabwe. The northern parts of the province are more likely to be invaded by the focal species than any other part of the province. Overall, the results of the study underscore the importance of species distribution modelling under a changing climate. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158491
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, University of Zimbabwe, Private Bag, Mount Pleasant, Harare, MP167, Zimbabwe; Institute for Water Studies, Department of Earth Sciences, The University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17, Bellville, 7535, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Ncube B.,Shekede M.D.,Gwitira I.,et al. Spatial modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Lantana camara in Southern Zimbabwe[J]. Applied Geography,2020-01-01,117