globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0189
论文题名:
Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios
作者: Molotoks A.; Henry R.; Stehfest E.; Doelman J.; Havlik P.; Krisztin T.; Alexander P.; Dawson T.P.; Smith P.
刊名: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
ISSN: 9628436
出版年: 2020
卷: 375, 期:1794
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biodiversity ; Carbon storage ; Integrated models ; Land-use change
Scopus关键词: agricultural land ; biodiversity ; carbon storage ; climate change ; climate effect ; comparative study ; demand analysis ; future prospect ; land use change ; prioritization ; socioeconomic conditions ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by the model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritize future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas. © 2019 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158663
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作者单位: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, United Kingdom; Stockholm Environment Institute York, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, 2594 AV, Netherlands; IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Department of Geography, King's College London, The Strand, London, WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Molotoks A.,Henry R.,Stehfest E.,et al. Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,2020-01-01,375(1794)
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