DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136012
论文题名: Scaling of greenhouse crop production in low sunlight scenarios
作者: Alvarado K.A. ; Mill A. ; Pearce J.M. ; Vocaet A. ; Denkenberger D.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 707 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alternative foods
; Existential risk
; Global catastrophic risk
; Greenhouses
; Low sunlight
; Nuclear winter
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Cost benefit analysis
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Growth rate
; International trade
; Polymer films
; Semiconducting films
; Agricultural output
; Catastrophic risks
; Greenhouse crop production
; Greenhouse structure
; Low sunlight
; Nuclear winter
; Orders of magnitude
; Supplemental lighting
; Greenhouses
; polymer
; steel
; air temperature
; catastrophic event
; climate modeling
; cost analysis
; crop production
; food supply
; growth rate
; risk factor
; solar radiation
; Article
; artificial light
; climate change
; controlled study
; cost
; cost benefit analysis
; crop management
; crop production
; disaster
; feasibility study
; forestry
; greenhouse
; growth rate
; illumination
; light related phenomena
; plant growth
; priority journal
; rice
; scale up
; simulation
; sunlight
; tropics
; winter
英文摘要: Purpose: During a global catastrophe such as a nuclear winter, in which sunlight and temperatures are reduced across every latitude, to maintain global agricultural output it is necessary to grow some crops under structures. This study designs a method for scaling up crop production in low-tech greenhouses to contribute to global food sustainability during global catastrophic conditions. Constructing low-tech greenhouses would obviate growing crops using more expensive and energy intensive artificial light. Methods: A nuclear winter climate model is used to determine conditions for which greenhouses would need to compensate. The greenhouse structures are designed to utilize global markets of timber, polymer film, construction aggregates, and steel nails. Results: The limiting market that determines the growth rate of the greenhouses is the rate at which polymer film and sheet are currently extruded. Conditions under low-tech greenhouses in the tropics would feasibly accommodate the production of nearly all crops. Some supplemental lighting would be required for long day crops. Conclusions: The analysis shows that the added cost of low-tech greenhouses is about two orders of magnitude lower than the added cost of artificial light growth. The retail cost of food from these low-tech greenhouses will be ~2.30 USD/kg dry food higher than current costs; for instance, a 160% retail cost increase for rice. According to the proposed scaling method, the greenhouses will provide 36% of food requirements for everyone by the end of the first year, and feed everyone after 30 months. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158727
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Fairbanks, AK, United States; University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Department of Material Science & Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, United States; Department of Electronics and Nanoengineering, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, FI-00076, Finland; Department of Geography, Research Group Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Bonn, Germany; Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, United States
Recommended Citation:
Alvarado K.A.,Mill A.,Pearce J.M.,et al. Scaling of greenhouse crop production in low sunlight scenarios[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,707