DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135447
论文题名: A novel conformable fractional non-homogeneous grey model for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions of BRICS countries
作者: Wu W. ; Ma X. ; Zhang Y. ; Li W. ; Wang Y.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 707 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ant lion optimizer
; BRICS countries
; Carbon dioxide emissions
; CFNGM(1,1,k,c) model
; Conformable fractional operator
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Heuristic algorithms
; Optimization
; BRICS countries
; Carbon dioxide emissions
; Closed form solutions
; Fractional operators
; International community
; Mathematical tools
; Meta heuristic algorithm
; Optimizers
; Carbon dioxide
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; emission control
; forecasting method
; numerical model
; algorithm
; Article
; Brazil
; carbon footprint
; China
; conformable fractional non homogeneous grey model
; environmental factor
; environmental monitoring
; environmental parameters
; environmental planning
; India
; mathematical computing
; mathematical model
; mathematical parameters
; prediction
; priority journal
; Russian Federation
; South Africa
; trend study
; Brazil
; China
; India
; Russian Federation
; South Africa
; Myrmeleontidae
英文摘要: Nowadays, climate change is one of the most important global issues to the international community. And nearly thirty kinds of greenhouse gases have been found in the atmosphere, of which the carbon dioxide plays a crucial role. In this paper, the carbon dioxide emissions of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries are investigated by using a conformable fractional non-homogeneous grey model. The grey model is systematically studied based on the new definitions of the conformable fractional accumulation and difference. The closed-form solutions of the new model are derived by applying mathematical tools and grey theory. And the meta-heuristic algorithm ant lion optimizer is adopted to search optimal fractional order. With raw data during the period from 2000 to 2018 announced by British Petroleum, the new model is established to forecast the carbon dioxide emissions of BRICS nations from 2019 to 2025. The results show that the trend of the carbon dioxide emissions of Brazil and India is growing year by year, the pattern of Russia is fluctuant but remains stable generally, while China and South Africa reach its peak value in 2019, and then decrease in the next several years. It also demonstrates that the governments of Brazil and India should take more measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, while the governments of China and South Africa should keep up their crucial work on carbon dioxide emissions. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158733
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, 621010, China; V.C. & V.R. Key Lab of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, China; State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, 610500, China; School of Computing, Mathematics and Digital Technology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD, England, United Kingdom; School of Science, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, 610500, China
Recommended Citation:
Wu W.,Ma X.,Zhang Y.,et al. A novel conformable fractional non-homogeneous grey model for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions of BRICS countries[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,707