globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2019.104305
论文题名:
How uncertainties are tackled in multi-disciplinary science? A review of integrated assessments under global change
作者: Pastor A.V.; Vieira D.C.S.; Soudijn F.H.; Edelenbosch O.Y.
刊名: Catena
ISSN: 3418162
出版年: 2020
卷: 186
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Integrated assessment models (IAMs) ; Land use ; Parametric uncertainty ; Structural uncertainty ; Uncertainty analysis (UA)
Scopus关键词: climate change ; global change ; integrated approach ; land use change ; meta-analysis ; parameter estimation ; risk assessment ; uncertainty analysis ; France ; Ile de France ; Paris ; Ville de Paris
英文摘要: Integrated assessment (IA) modelling can be an effective tool to gain insight into the dynamics of coupled earth system (land use, climate etc.) and socio-economic components. Quantifying and communicating uncertainties is a challenge of any scientific assessment, but is here magnified by the complex and boundary-crossing nature of IA models. Understanding the dynamics of coupled earth and socio-economic systems require data and methods from multiple disciplines, each with its own perspective on epistemological uncertainties (parametric and structural uncertainties), and its own protocols for assessing uncertainty. During the Paris Agreement, the lack of uncertainty analyses (UA) in IAs was risen (Rogelj et al. 2017) and calls for close collaboration of scientists coming from different fields. In this study, we review how uncertainties are tackled in a range of science disciplines that are related to global change including climate, hydrology, energy and land use, and which contribute to IA modelling. We conducted a meta-analysis to identify the contributing disciplines, and review which type of uncertainties are assessed. We then describe sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter values, model structure), and present opportunities for improved assessment and communication of uncertainties in IA modelling. We show in our meta-analysis that parametric uncertainty is the uncertainty analysis that has been applied the most, while structural uncertainty is less commonly applied, with the exception of the energy scientific discipline. We finish our study with key recommendations to improve uncertainty analysis such as including risk analysis. By embracing uncertainties, resilient and effective solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation could be better communicated, identified and implemented. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158759
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作者单位: cE3c, Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, 1749-016, Portugal; MARETEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, Lisboa, 1049-001, Portugal; Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), Dpt. of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, 3810-193, Portugal; Wageningen Marine Research, Haringkade 1, CP IJmuiden, 1976, Netherlands; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, WX Amsterdam, 1012, Netherlands; Department of Management and Economics, Politecnico di Milan, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milan, 20156, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Pastor A.V.,Vieira D.C.S.,Soudijn F.H.,et al. How uncertainties are tackled in multi-disciplinary science? A review of integrated assessments under global change[J]. Catena,2020-01-01,186
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