globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07238-9
论文题名:
Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China
作者: Zhang W.; Li Y.; Li Z.; Wei X.; Ren T.; Liu J.; Zhu Y.
刊名: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
ISSN: 9441344
出版年: 2020
卷: 27, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China ; Chronic exposure ; Climate change ; Heat
Scopus关键词: air exposure ; climate effect ; dry season ; health risk ; long-term change ; population growth ; public health ; temperature profile ; urbanization ; China
英文摘要: Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158826
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China; Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, United States; Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; Nanyang Meteorological Service of Henan Province, 209 Beijing Road Nanyang, Henan, 473000, China

Recommended Citation:
Zhang W.,Li Y.,Li Z.,et al. Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2020-01-01,27(8)
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