globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14913
论文题名:
Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean
作者: Olmos M.; Payne M.R.; Nevoux M.; Prévost E.; Chaput G.; Du Pontavice H.; Guitton J.; Sheehan T.; Mills K.; Rivot E.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2020
卷: 26, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic salmon ; bottom-up ; climate change ; environmentally driven changes ; hierarchical Bayesian model ; marine survival ; spatial covariation ; stage-based life cycle model
Scopus关键词: Salmo salar ; article ; climate change ; controlled study ; habitat ; human ; life cycle ; migratory species ; nonhuman ; North America ; Norwegian Sea ; Salmo salar ; sea surface temperature ; smolt ; Southern Europe ; survival rate ; time series analysis
英文摘要: A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971–2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971–2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158858
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作者单位: UMR ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Agrocampus Ouest, INRAe, Rennes, France; Management of Diadromous Fish in their Environment, AFB, INRAe, Agrocampus Ouest, UNIV PAU & PAYS ADOUR/E2S UPPA, Rennes, France; National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Aqua), Kongens Lyngby, Denmark; ECOBIOP, INRAe, Univ. Pau & Pays Adour/E2S, UPPA, Saint-Pée-sur-Nivelle, France; Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Moncton, NB, Canada; Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States

Recommended Citation:
Olmos M.,Payne M.R.,Nevoux M.,et al. Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean[J]. Global Change Biology,2020-01-01,26(3)
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