globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114347
论文题名:
Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective
作者: Edelenbosch O.Y.; van Vuuren D.P.; Blok K.; Calvin K.; Fujimori S.
刊名: Applied Energy
ISSN: 3062619
出版年: 2020
卷: 261
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Demand sectors ; Energy efficiency ; Global scenarios ; Shared socioeconomic pathways
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Electric insulation ; Energy management ; Energy resources ; Uncertainty analysis ; Abatement potentials ; Climate policy scenarios ; Decomposition analysis ; Demand sectors ; Energy efficiency improvements ; Global scenarios ; Shared socioeconomic pathways ; Technology assessments ; Energy efficiency ; climate change ; decomposition analysis ; demand-side management ; dependency ; energy efficiency ; environmental policy ; numerical model
英文摘要: Limiting climate change below a given temperature will require fundamental changes in the current energy system, both in the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations. Therefore, in this study we respond to this knowledge gap by analysing the future energy demand projections in both baseline and climate policy scenarios of global models in detail. We examine the projections for the industry, transport and buildings sectors across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework by applying a decomposition analysis. We compare the projected demand side mitigation efforts to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessment of demand-side abatement potential for the year 2030. Without climate policy, model-based projections show that baseline emissions can grow rapidly in industry and transport sectors, but are also highly uncertain across models. The decomposition analysis shows that the key uncertainty across the global scenarios is the projected final energy per capita. For modellers therefore there lies a challenge to better understand drivers of future energy efficiency and service demand, that contribute to the projected energy demand. This model enhancement would moreover allow to evaluate policy measures that can impact this relation. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than implemented in the scenarios. Improved insulation, higher electric vehicle penetration rates and modal shift for example could reduce final energy demand to lower levels in the short term than currently projected, reducing the dependency on fuel switching required in current scenarios to meet the stringent climate targets. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158893
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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, AV Den Haag, 2594, Netherlands; Department of Management and Economics, Politecnico di Milan, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milan, Italy; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, CS Utrecht, 3584, Netherlands; Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, BX Delft, 2628, Netherlands; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, 361, C1-3, Kyoto University Katsura Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto-city, 615-8540, Japan; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Edelenbosch O.Y.,van Vuuren D.P.,Blok K.,et al. Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective[J]. Applied Energy,2020-01-01,261
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