globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100359
论文题名:
Global warming and shifts in cropping systems together reduce China's rice production
作者: Chen C.; van Groenigen K.J.; Yang H.; Hungate B.A.; Yang B.; Tian Y.; Chen J.; Dong W.; Huang S.; Deng A.; Jiang Y.; Zhang W.
刊名: Global Food Security
ISSN: 22119124
出版年: 2020
卷: 24
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Cropping system ; Food security ; Meta-analysis ; Warming
英文摘要: Climate warming is widely expected to affect rice yields, but results are equivocal and variation in rice cropping systems and climatic conditions complicates country-scale yield assessments. Here we show, through meta–analysis of field warming experiments, that yield responses to warming differ strongly between China's rice cropping systems. Whereas warming increases yields in “single rice” systems, it decreases yields in “middle rice” systems and has contrasting effects for early and late rice in “double rice” systems. We further show that the contribution of these cropping systems to China's total rice production has shifted dramatically over recent decades. We estimate that if the present structure of rice cropping systems persists, warming will reduce China's total rice production by 5.0% in 2060. However, if the recent decline in the area of double rice systems continues, China's rice production may decrease by 13.5%. Our results underline the need for maintaining the current area of China's “double rice” cropping system and for technological innovations in multiple rice cropping systems to ensure food security in a warming climate. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158926
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, China; Institute of Crop Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China; Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4 RJ, United Kingdom; Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems Department, Rothamsted Research, Okehampton, EX20 2SB, United Kingdom; Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States; Institute of Rice, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, China; Soil and Fertilizer & Resources and Environmental Institute, Jiangxi Academy of Agricultural Science, Nanchang, 330200, China; Institute of Crop Cultivation and Tillage, Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Harbin, 150086, China; Ministry of Education and Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology, Ecology and Genetic Breeding, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, 330045, China

Recommended Citation:
Chen C.,van Groenigen K.J.,Yang H.,et al. Global warming and shifts in cropping systems together reduce China's rice production[J]. Global Food Security,2020-01-01,24
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