DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103109
论文题名: On the need of bias correction methods for wave climate projections
作者: Lemos G. ; Menendez M. ; Semedo A. ; Camus P. ; Hemer M. ; Dobrynin M. ; Miranda P.M.A.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 9218181
出版年: 2020
卷: 186 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Ocean currents
; Water waves
; Bias correction
; Bias-correction methods
; Climate impacts
; Coastal process
; Extreme events
; Significant wave height
; Statistical properties
; Systematic bias
; Climate models
; calibration
; climate change
; climate effect
; correction
; ocean wave
; significant wave height
; simulation
; wave climate
英文摘要: This study focuses on the assessment of systematic biases in wave climate simulations, exploring different bias correction methods commonly used for climate impact variables (e.g. precipitation, temperature), and on the analysis of bias corrected wave climate projections. Four different bias correction methods are analyzed, two of which are applied to an 8-member dynamic multi-forcing global wave climate ensemble, to mitigate the significant wave height (HS) bias. The GOW2 (Global Ocean Waves 2) global wave hindcast is used as reference data for the calibration. Assuming that the statistical properties of the present climate biases are maintained in the future, these biases can be corrected by applying a bias correction model based on the reference data. Thus, the impact of climate change in the bias corrected future HS climate, is also investigated. A bias corrected 8-member ensemble is analyzed for the 2081–2100 period, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate the relevance of bias correction in both the estimation of ensemble mean HS projected changes towards the end of the 21st century, and in the ensemble spread magnitude. Outcomes support the need for a quantile based bias correction, able to deal with extreme events, which have a disproportionate impact in coastal processes. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158937
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal; Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain; IHE Delft, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Westvest 7, Delft, 2611, Netherlands; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Lemos G.,Menendez M.,Semedo A.,et al. On the need of bias correction methods for wave climate projections[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2020-01-01,186