DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102258
论文题名: The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets
作者: van der Ploeg F. ; Rezai A.
刊名: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
ISSN: 950696
出版年: 2020
卷: 100 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adjustment costs
; Botched climate policies
; Discoveries
; Exploration investment
; Fossil fuel
; Irreversible capital
; Policy tipping
; Stock prices
; Stranded carbon assets
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Carbon
; Fossil fuels
; Gas industry
; Global warming
; Investments
; Proven reserves
; Adjustment costs
; Climate policy
; Discoveries
; Irreversible capital
; Stock price
; Stranded carbon assets
; Costs
; capital flow
; carbon budget
; cost analysis
; environmental economics
; environmental policy
; fossil fuel
; global warming
; policy implementation
; pollution tax
; profitability
; stock market
英文摘要: If global warming is to stay below 2 °C, there are four risks of assets stranding. First, substantial fossil fuel reserves will be stranded at the end of the fossil era. Second, this is true for exploration capital too. Third, unanticipated changes in present or expected climate policy cause discrete jumps in today's valuation of physical and natural capital. Fourth, if timing and intensity of climate policy are uncertain, revaluation of assets occurs as uncertainty about future climate policy is resolved. To highlight these four effects, we use an analytical model of investment in exploration capital with intertemporal adjustment costs, reserves depletion and market capitalization, and calibrate it to the global oil and gas industry. Climate policy implements a carbon budget commensurate with 2 °C peak warming and we allow for immediate or delayed carbon taxes and renewable subsidies. The social welfare ranking of these instruments is inverse to that of the oil and gas industry which prefers renewable subsidy and delaying taxes for as long as possible. We also pay attention to how the legislative “risk” of tipping into policy action affects the timing of the end of the fossil era, the profitability of existing capital, and green paradox effects. © 2019 Elsevier Inc. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158955
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Netherlands; CEPR, 3 Great Sutton St, Clerkenwell, London, EC1V 0DX, United Kingdom; CESifo, Poschingerstraße 5, Munich, 81679, Germany; Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Ecological Economics, WU Wien, Welthandelsplatz 1/D5.3Vienna 1020, Austria; WIIW, Rahlgasse 3Vienna 1060, Austria; IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, 2371, Austria
Recommended Citation:
van der Ploeg F.,Rezai A.. The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2020-01-01,100