DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105930
论文题名: The expanding distribution of the Indian Peafowl (Pavo cristatus) as an indicator of changing climate in Kerala, southern India: A modelling study using MaxEnt
作者: Jose V S. ; Nameer P.O.
刊名: Ecological Indicators
ISSN: 1470160X
出版年: 2020
卷: 110 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bird
; Global warming
; Range expansion
; Species distribution modelling (SDM)
; Western Ghats
Scopus关键词: Birds
; Ecosystems
; Expansion
; Global warming
; Environmental change
; Future predictions
; Habitat suitability
; Population expansion
; Potential distributions
; Range expansion
; Species distribution modelling
; Western ghats
; Population distribution
; Aves
; Pavo cristatus
英文摘要: Avian species can be regarded as a bioindicator of environmental change. However, limited analysis are available on the effect of climate change on the distribution of birds in India. During recent years the distribution of the Indian Peafowl, (Pavo cristatus), a dryland species was observed to be expanding in Kerala, southern India, a region falling under the humid tropics. A study was conducted to understand the reasons for this expanding distribution, the influence of climatic variables and the future extent of distribution using MaxEnt. A Mean ensemble of five CMIP5 models were used to predict the potential distribution for the period 2050s (2041–2060) and 2070s (2061–2080) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The study identified that seasonality of temperature and precipitation during the driest quarter will be the major factors which determine the distribution of P. cristatus. The model showed that in current conditions 19.15% of the study area provides a suitable habitat for P. cristatus, whilst future predictions suggest that there may be a range expansion of 41.44% and 55.33% during the 2050s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In the 2070s, area of habitat range may decline to 22.09% and 32.22% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Comparison of various RCP scenarios showed high habitat suitability under RCP 8.5. Central Kerala is found to be the hotspot for the Indian Peafowl population expansion and the distribution may be prominent towards southeast and northwest during the 2050s and 2070s respectively. The study reveals that the Indian Peafowl acts as a bioindicator of the changing climate in Kerala. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158957
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Academy of Climate Change Education and Research, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur, Kerala 680656, India; Centre for Wildlife Studies, College of Forestry, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur, Kerala 680656, India
Recommended Citation:
Jose V S.,Nameer P.O.. The expanding distribution of the Indian Peafowl (Pavo cristatus) as an indicator of changing climate in Kerala, southern India: A modelling study using MaxEnt[J]. Ecological Indicators,2020-01-01,110