DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135357
论文题名: Development of multi-model ensemble approach for enhanced assessment of impacts of climate change on climate extremes
作者: Tegegne G. ; Melesse A.M. ; Worqlul A.W.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 704 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate extremes
; Multi-model ensemble
; South Korea
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Global warming
; Mean square error
; Climate change impact
; Climate extremes
; Global climate model
; Multi-model combination
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation extremes
; Root mean square errors
; South Korea
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; frequency analysis
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; weather forecasting
; agriculture
; Article
; climate change
; climate resilience
; dry season
; environmental impact
; environmental monitoring
; global climate
; hydrology
; Korea
; meteorological phenomena
; priority journal
; reliability ensemble averaging
; scoring system
; seasonal variation
; standard precipitation index
; standardization
; Taylor diagram
; wet season
; South Korea
英文摘要: The severity and frequency of climate extremes will change in the future owing to global warming. This can severely impact the natural environment. Therefore, it is common practice to project climate extremes with a global climate model (GCM) in order to quantify and manage the associated risks. Several studies have demonstrated that a multi-model ensemble approach increases the reliability of predictions by exploiting the strengths and discounting the weaknesses of each climate simulator. However, the available multi-model averaging approaches exhibit significant drawbacks as they are not capable of extracting different climate extreme characteristics from the climate models. This study proposes a new approach that combines multiple models for projecting climate extremes by accounting for different extreme indices in the climate model performance weighting scheme. The capability of this method was evaluated with respect to reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Taylor diagram-based GCM skill approaches for reproducing wet and dry precipitation events. The proposed multi-model averaging approach outperformed the available approaches in reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 5% and 54% in the wet and dry precipitation conditions, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that incorporating the different precipitation extremes in a multi-model combination approach could enhance the assessment of climate change impacts on the climate extremes. The climate change impacts on the extreme events, based on the proposed multi-model ensembles, is thus assessed using the standardized precipitation indexes of 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month durations. In general, the results exhibited that the frequency of wet events increases, whereas that of drought events decreases. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159218
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Gwanak-ro 1, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Temple, TX, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tegegne G.,Melesse A.M.,Worqlul A.W.. Development of multi-model ensemble approach for enhanced assessment of impacts of climate change on climate extremes[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,704