DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134950
论文题名: Quantifying economic impacts of climate change under nine future emission scenarios within CMIP6
作者: Chen Y. ; Liu A. ; Cheng X.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 703 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic emissions
; Climate change
; CMIP6 scenarios
; Economic impacts
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Cost benefit analysis
; Cost effectiveness
; Cost reduction
; Economic and social effects
; Adaptation strategies
; Anthropogenic emissions
; CMIP6 scenarios
; Economic development
; Economic impacts
; Integrated assessment models
; Mitigation policies
; Quantitative assessments
; Climate change
; fossil fuel
; anthropogenic source
; climate change
; CMIP
; cost-benefit analysis
; economic impact
; future prospect
; scenario analysis
; Article
; climate change
; cost benefit analysis
; economic aspect
; futurology
; human impact (environment)
; priority journal
; Africa
; Middle East
英文摘要: The concept of “environmental determinism” suggests that climate conditions played a substantial role in shaping modern society. To minimize the social costs of future climate change and to promote economic development through identification of cost-effective adaptation strategies and mitigation policies, quantitative assessments are needed for obtaining a better understanding of the causal impacts of climate change on human society. In this work, we estimate the economic impacts of climate change during the 21st century under nine CMIP6 scenarios, using the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model driven by the latest anthropogenic emission and socio-economic projections. Our results show that the largest climate change damages occur under the SSP3-7.0 scenario (involving regional rivalry and high anthropogenic emissions), followed by the SSP3-LowNTCF scenario (which considers significantly reduced NTCF emissions), and that climate change damage costs are expected to grow much faster than global GDP (reaching ~47% of global GDP in 2100). Gaps in adaptation resulting from regional inequalities would lead to higher climate change damages in poorer and warmer regions such as Africa and the Middle East. The outcomes obtained under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, in which the warming limit targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C set forth in the Paris Agreement are considered, respectively, reveal that aggressive mitigation strategies pass a cost-benefit analysis and could significantly reduce the economic impacts of climate change. © 2019 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159312
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, 519082, China; Joint Center for Global Change and China Green Development, Beijing, 100875, China
Recommended Citation:
Chen Y.,Liu A.,Cheng X.. Quantifying economic impacts of climate change under nine future emission scenarios within CMIP6[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,703