DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1698406
论文题名: Financial impacts of climate change mitigation policies and their macroeconomic implications: a stock-flow consistent approach
作者: Bovari E. ; Giraud G. ; McIsaac F.
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 14693062
出版年: 2020
卷: 20, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon pricing
; credit rationing
; Ecological macroeconomics
; integrated assessment
; stock-flow consistency
Scopus关键词: climate change
; emissions trading
; environmental economics
; financial crisis
; integrated approach
; macroeconomics
; pollution tax
英文摘要: To what extent can worldwide carbon pricing foster the transition towards a low-carbon economy and mitigate the effects of global warming? We address this question by assessing the financial impacts and macroeconomic implications of carbon pricing and public subsidies. More specifically, we evaluate the extent to which such policies are sustainable by computing the probability of remaining below two thresholds that we argue to be indicative of the stability of our current economy and climate: (1) a temperature anomaly above +2°C (a commonly acknowledged target, including in the 2015 Paris Agreement, to potentially avoid nonlinearities in the climate system) and (2) a large global debt-to-output ratio of 270%. Key policy insights The upper-bound of the carbon pricing corridor advocated in the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices (2017. Report of the high-level commission on carbon prices. Washington, DC: World Bank), when implemented together with additional public subsidies on abatement costs in the private sector, is likely to successfully ensure sustainable economic growth by the end of the century. The probability that these climate policies will allow us to cap the average Earth temperature deviation at below +2.5°C by the end of this century is about 50%. Without a strong public commitment, the impact of climate change on gross output and capital, which captures nonlinear effects such as tipping points, appears to be powerful enough to pull the world economy towards a debt-deflationary field, potentially leading to forced degrowth in the second half of the twenty-first century. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159340
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France; Chair Energy & Prosperity, Institut Louis Bachelier, Paris, France; Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Bovari E.,Giraud G.,McIsaac F.. Financial impacts of climate change mitigation policies and their macroeconomic implications: a stock-flow consistent approach[J]. Climate Policy,2020-01-01,20(2)