| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-20-363-2020
|
| 论文题名: | Wildfire ignition probability in Belgium |
| 作者: | Depicker A.; De Baets B.; Marcel Baetens J.
|
| 刊名: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
|
| ISSN: | 15618633
|
| 出版年: | 2020
|
| 卷: | 20, 期:2 | | 语种: | 英语
|
| Scopus关键词: | action plan
; database
; hazard management
; perception
; probability
; risk assessment
; wildfire
; Belgium
|
| 英文摘要: | In recent decades, large wildfires have inflicted considerable damage on valuable Natura 2000 regions in Belgium. Despite these events and the general perception that global change will exacerbate wildfire prevalence, this has not been studied yet in the Belgian context. Therefore, the national government initiated the national action plan on wildfires in order to evaluate the wildfire risk, on the one hand, and the materials, procedures, and training of fire services, on the other hand. This study focuses on the spatial distribution of the ignition probability, a component of the wildfire risk framework. In a first stage, we compile a historical wildfire database using (i) newspaper articles between 1994 and 2016 and (ii) a list of wildfire interventions between 2010 and 2013, provided by the government. In a second stage, we use a straightforward method relying on Bayes' rule and a limited number of covariates to calculate the ignition probability. It appears that most wildfire-prone areas in Belgium are located in heathland where military exercises are held. The provinces that have the largest relative areas with a high or very high wildfire risk are Limburg and Antwerp. Our study also revealed that most wildfire ignitions in Belgium are caused by humans (both arson and negligence) and that natural causes such as lightning are rather scarce. Wildfire prevention can be improved by (i) excluding military activity in fire-prone areas during the fire season, (ii) improving collaboration with foreign emergency services, (iii) concentrating the dedicated resources in the areas that display the highest ignition probabilities, (iv) improving fire detection methods, and (v) raising more awareness among the public. © 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159381
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Depicker A.,De Baets B.,Marcel Baetens J.. Wildfire ignition probability in Belgium[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,20(2)
|
|
|